[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140100
SWODY1
SPC AC 140059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW
MOT 30 SSE SDY MLS 50 SSE BIL 15 NNE MQM DLN 40 WNW LWT 70 ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 30 WSW INW
75 NNE INW 4BL 35 S CAG LAR 45 SSW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 10 WSW
WRL 40 S RKS 50 NNE U28 25 SW 4HV 40 NNE BCE U24 OGD 35 S BYI 30 W
SUN 45 WNW 27U 20 NW 3DU 10 WSW FCA 50 NNE FCA ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL
15 S REJ 40 NNE CDR 30 SSE SNY 55 N GCK 15 NE P28 35 NW LIT 25 WSW
UOX 40 ESE CHA 35 NE HKY 45 SE PKB 30 WSW MFD 10 WSW IND 20 SW DNV
15 ESE CGX 25 SSE LNR 20 NNW VOK 20 E AUW 35 SSW OSC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND NERN MT THROUGH
NWRN ND...

...MT THROUGH NWRN ND...

EARLY THIS EVENING HIGH BASED STORMS CONTINUE FROM CNTRL THROUGH E
CNTRL MT. DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF
40+ F WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS
STORMS SPREAD NEWD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO
2500 J/KG FROM NERN MT INTO NWRN ND AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SWLY EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR 40 TO 50 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY
ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

GLASGOW 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO PERSIST. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MT AND INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE
IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
STORMS TO CONTINUE FROM ERN MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN ND.

...NRN NY AND VT...

STORMS OVER SERN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO EXTREME NRN NY
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

..DIAL.. 07/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.