[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 132004
SWODY1
SPC AC 132003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
MOT 30 SSE SDY MLS 50 SSE BIL 15 NNE MQM 45 WSW BTM 20 E GTF 55 NE
HVR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
EFK BTV 20 S SLK 35 ESE ART 20 S ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 30 WSW INW
75 NNE INW 4BL 35 S CAG LAR 45 SSW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 10 WSW
WRL 40 S RKS 50 NNE U28 25 SW 4HV 40 NNE BCE U24 OGD 40 S TWF 20 NE
OWY 65 E BKE 50 NNE S80 40 ESE GEG 20 NW GEG 30 WSW 63S 45 NW 63S
...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 50 ESE REJ 15 ENE CDR 35 WNW IML 45 SW HLC 20
S RSL 20 NNE FRM 45 NNE IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MVN 45 ENE DYR
45 NNW CSV 20 NE LOZ 40 WSW HTS 40 N DAY 25 NW HUF 20 WSW MVN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NERN NY AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
NRN ROCKIES...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED
BY QUASISTATIONARY/HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM GREAT BASIN ACROSS NRN
PLAINS...AND BY BROAD DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE DRIFTING ERRATICALLY OVER
LOWER OH VALLEY.  NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC NW AND SRN BC -- IS FCST TO
REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT.
 ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL-SWRN SASK
INTO NWRN MT -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MOST OF MT TONIGHT AND
INTO NWRN ND.  MEANWHILE...SFC FRONTAL ZONE OVER SWRN QUE AND SRN
ONT WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARD NRN UPSTATE NY OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
PRECEDED BY CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.

...NERN NY...NEW ENGLAND...
UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS QUE AND ONT INDICATED ELEVATED
MIXED-LAYER PLUME WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
THIS IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION -- SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE BASED ON
WARNING INFO FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA -- ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN QUE. 
EXPECT ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES TO SHIFT SEWD/SWD
INTO OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT...CONCURRENT WITH INCREASE IN 850 MB FLOW
TO 20-30 KT SWLYS.  STABILIZATION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
SUPPRESSED SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TIME BEGIN ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE CANADIAN ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO MCS AND AFFECT AREAS NEAR BORDER TONIGHT...CATEGORICAL
SLGT RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED THERE..WITH MARGINAL PROBABILITIES
FARTHER S.

...MT...
SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM ACROSS SWRN AND CENTRAL MT AS AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AMIDST FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AS
EVIDENT IN VWP FROM BIL AREA.  HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY...WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL.  REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
1741 AND 1742 FOR SHORT-TERM DETAILS.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN OVERALL EWD SHIFT.  AFTER
ABOUT 14/03Z...DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRESSURE/HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING NWRN TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF 35-45 KT LLJ...WHICH IN TURN WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND MOIST/WARM ADVECTION TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL
MCS OVER SOME OF ERN MT AND WRN ND.

...S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS...N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742 FOR NOWCAST INFO OVER ERN NC. 
MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  SFC-BASED DIABATIC HEATING AND RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS BROAD
SWATH FROM PA THROUGH ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO
CENTRAL TX.  DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WEAKNESSES IN BOTH LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 07/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.