[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131610
SWODY1
SPC AC 131609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
MOT 30 SSE SDY MLS BIL 30 N LVM 30 E HLN GTF 60 NW HVR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
EFK RUT GFL UCA 20 S ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 25 E MBG
20 SE PHP 30 S MHN 45 SW HLC 20 S RSL 10 SE YKN 15 E DLH ...CONT...
65 WSW TUS 30 WSW INW 75 NNE INW 4BL 35 S CAG LAR 45 SSW DGW 30 NE
CPR 30 SSW SHR 10 WSW WRL 40 S RKS 50 NNE U28 25 SW 4HV 40 NNE BCE
U24 OGD 40 S TWF 20 NE OWY 65 E BKE 50 NNE S80 40 ESE GEG 20 NW GEG
50 NE SEA 20 E BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE MVN 25 ENE CKV
45 NNW CSV 20 NE LOZ 15 NW HTS 35 NNE DAY 15 NNW LAF 45 ENE MVN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS NRN NY/VT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN MT AND FAR NWRN ND...

...NY/VT AREA...
ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS MOVING SEWD FROM SERN QUEBEC INTO NRN NY
THIS MORNING. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED MUCAPES 1000 TO 1500 J/KG FROM
SRN QUEBEC INTO NRN NY...DUE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 80S...RESULTING IN MODEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG A WEAK WARM
FRONT/TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH NY. ALTHOUGH THE
MID LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...20-25 KT...VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE MULTICELL
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY/VT WHERE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. STRONGER STORMS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL EARLY/MID
EVENING...THEN WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY.

...MT AREA...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE ACROSS
MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...A
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WRN MT...WILL BECOME BETTER
DEFINED AND MOVE EWD ACROSS MT AND INTO NRN ND BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...MORNING AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL MT. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT
IN HIGH BASED STORMS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH NEARS AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ACROSS ERN MT... SUPERCELLS MAY
EVOLVE WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE HAIL THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF BOW
ECHOES.

...TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...
A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORNING SUNSHINE HAS
BEEN PREVALENT. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FOCUS ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SERN INDIANA SWWD ACROSS
SRN AR INTO NRN TX. NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO GA AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES
IN AREA OF WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK OVER THIS AREA...THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS WITH
STRONG/DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS 
A SEVERE HAILSTONE OR TWO.

..IMY/CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.