[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131235
SWODY1
SPC AC 131233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE
ISN 10 S SDY 45 WNW MLS 20 NNE BIL 10 N LVM 35 N BZN 10 S GTF 60 NW
HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 50 ESE PHX
30 WSW INW 55 N INW 70 SSW 4BL 25 SE 4BL 50 W EGE 35 NNE EGE 35 S
LAR 45 SW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 10 WSW WRL 20 NNW RIW 45 ESE BPI
35 SW RKS 15 SE PUC 25 NW 4HV 40 WSW 4HV 25 E BCE 10 SW BCE 25 WNW
BCE 40 ENE MLF 40 S SLC OGD 25 SSE MLD 25 WSW PIH 35 E BOI 65 E BKE
S80 20 SE S06 25 NW 3TH 20 NW GEG 25 N EAT 50 NE SEA 20 E BLI
...CONT... 55 N DVL 40 ESE P24 25 ESE REJ 25 NW CDR 35 SSE AIA 30 NW
MCK 20 NW HLC 20 SSW CNK 15 SW BIE 35 SSE SUX 20 S MKT 65 N EAU 35 S
CMX ...CONT... 20 S HUL BGR 20 NNE PWM 15 SE EEN 20 NW GON 30 SSW
GON.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT....

...MT AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TO WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON...AND CENTRAL/ERN MT
TONIGHT.  IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...A COLD FRONT
AND LEE CYCLONE WILL ALSO MOVE EWD ACROSS MT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WHILE A
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME IS OVERSPREADING MT IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT.  IT APPEARS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED
TO ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY W OF THE FRONT WHERE THE ASCENT WILL BE
STRONGEST.  MUCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/DEEP
MIXED LAYERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED STORMS WITH
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.  ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS BOW ECHOES.

...INTERIOR GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON...
A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500
J/KG/ IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FROM E TX EWD ACROSS THE
GULF STATES...AND NWD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO PA/WRN NY. THOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THIS AREA...THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS WITH
STRONG/DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.