[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130536
SWODY1
SPC AC 130535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
GGW 55 SSW GGW 60 ESE LWT 10 N LVM 40 NNE BZN GTF 60 NW HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 50 ESE PHX
30 WSW INW 55 N INW 70 SSW 4BL 25 SE 4BL 45 W EGE 25 WNW 4FC 35 S
LAR 45 SW DGW 30 NE CPR 30 SSW SHR 25 ESE COD 35 NW LND 15 SSE BPI
50 NNW VEL 15 SE PUC 25 NW 4HV 40 WSW 4HV 25 E BCE 10 SW BCE 25 WNW
BCE 40 ENE MLF 40 S SLC OGD 25 SSE MLD 25 WSW PIH 35 E BOI 65 E BKE
S80 20 SE S06 25 NW 3TH 20 NW GEG 25 N EAT 50 NE SEA 20 E BLI
...CONT... 55 N DVL 40 ESE P24 25 ESE REJ 25 NW CDR 35 SSE AIA 30 NW
MCK 20 NW HLC 20 SSW CNK 15 SW BIE 35 SSE SUX 20 S MKT 65 N EAU 35 S
CMX ...CONT... 20 S HUL BGR 20 NNE PWM 15 SE EEN 20 NNE BDR 25 E
ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MT...

...MT...
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OFF THE PAC NW COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WED AFTN.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESPOND AND LIKELY ADVECT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS WWD INTO CNTRL MT...MAINTAINING THE
LOW-MID 50S DEW POINTS ALREADY OBSERVED.  THE BACKED NATURE TO THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH STRENGTHENING SWLY H5 FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT
IN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  

TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM OVER SWRN MT BY EARLY AFTN AND STRENGTHEN
AS THEY MOVE NEWD TOWARD CNTRL MT.  HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  THE STORMS COULD
BEGIN TO ROOT INTO A MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE ADJACENT
PLAINS OF CNTRL MT LATE IN THE AFTN/EVE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER.  BY THEN...STORM STRUCTURE MAY EVOLVE INTO BOWS WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH CONTINUED SEVERE HAIL/WIND
THREATS.  

FARTHER E...PROSPECTS FOR TSTM INITIATION APPEAR LOWER GIVEN
STRONGER CAP OVER SCNTRL/SERN MT.  BUT...AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...A
FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP EWD FROM CNTRL MT INTO NERN/ECNTRL MT AND
PERHAPS NWRN ND AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD AND A 40 KT SLY LLJ
DEVELOPS.  THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLD SEVERE WIND/HAIL. 

...SERN STATES...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONES ROTATING AROUND THE OH VLY LOW.  DESPITE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 DEG C/KM...STRONG HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES
2000-3000 J/KG OVER A RATHER LARGE AREA OF THE SE ON WED.  MULTICELL
TSTM CLUSTERS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE WITHIN A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED H85-H5 WLY FLOW FROM PARTS OF MS EWD INTO AL...GA AND
PERHAPS THE CAROLINAS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREATS.  FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE...CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE EVE.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 07/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.