[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 122004
SWODY1
SPC AC 122002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU SAD FMN
CAG GCC 35 SSW REJ PHP ANW MHE 45 SSW FAR 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 30 N
PBG EEN ISP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ON CONUS SCALE...UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD WILL
REMAIN DOMINATED BY GREAT BASIN HIGH...ASSOCIATED RIDGE NEWD TOWARD
S-CENTRAL CANADA...AND INLAND REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DENNIS. 
LATTER IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE -- CENTERED
ATTM OVER SRN IL.  CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
ERRATICALLY ACROSS SRN IL/SRN INDIANA/NWRN KY REGION THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FROM CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS MUCH OF DIXIE TO MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE EVIDENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW BELT...OVER
THESE AREAS -- SRN WV/EXTREME WRN VA...ERN KY/ERN TN TO NRN
AL...SWRN AR...NRN KS. EXPECT THESE TROUGHS TO MOVE SLOWLY AND
CYCLONICALLY AROUND BROADER VORTEX.

...ERN NY...
ISOLATED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS
MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING
INVOF SFC TROUGH.  ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY FORCED AND OCCURRING IN
MERIDIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SPEED SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS.  REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
1735 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS.

...CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT TO LOWER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
MULTICELL TSTMS -- WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS -- ARE
EXPECTED IN A BROAD ARC AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD DEEP-LAYER
CYCLONE.  FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON...RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS -- AIDED
BY STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES
GENERALLY IN 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE.  THERE MAY BE SEVERAL MESOBETA
SCALE MODES OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITHIN THIS
ARC -- NOTABLE AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. IN
NEAR TERM..REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1733 OVER PORTIONS
KS/OK...AND 1734 ACROSS PORTIONS GA/AL/MS.  ALTHOUGH TSTMS SHOULD
PERSIST IN THIS ARC THROUGHOUT TONIGHT...EXPECT BOTH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK ONCE SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS ERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON...FROM BLACK HILLS SWD.  INTENSE SFC HEATING AND MIXING OF
BOUNDARY LAYER IS CREATING DEEP/LOW-RH SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUITABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL.  STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT WITH WEAK ABSOLUTE
FLOWS AT MOST LEVELS LIMITING BOTH BULK SHEAR AND ORGANIZATION OF
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 07/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.