[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121630
SWODY1
SPC AC 121628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 65 WNW SAD
40 NNE GUP 45 W EGE 15 SW GCC 35 SSW REJ 45 S PHP 15 SW ANW 50 NNE
BUB 45 SSW FAR 35 ESE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG 15 SW RUT
ISP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AL/GA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
REMNANT LOW OF DENNIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH
BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION FROM MS/AL INTO THE
CAROLINAS.  THIS AREA SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE HEATING TODAY...WHICH
ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S...WILL PROVIDE A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG/.  HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A FEW ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS.  WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES DUE TO ANTICIPATED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS.

OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF
NY/NJ/PA AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHS ROTATE SOUTHWARD INTO REGION. 
EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KNOTS IN THIS REGION
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE COLORADO ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY...ALONG WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER FORCING EXPECTED.  A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL POSSIBLE.  OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 07/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.