[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121253
SWODY1
SPC AC 121251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BML 15 E LCI
ISP ...CONT... 25 SW FHU 35 NNW SAD 40 NNE GUP 45 W EGE 25 S GCC 50
ENE 81V 45 S PHP 15 NE ANW 50 W YKN 45 SSE FAR 35 ESE RRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES REMAINS OVER
CANADA.  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DENNIS HAVE ESSENTIALLY
STALLED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  12Z SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE
ANALYSES REVEAL THAT THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/GREATEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES WELL S AND E OF THE REMNANT WARM CORE LOW. A FEW
STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THE 25-35 KT LOW-MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES...AS WELL AS NEAR AND E OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.

ELSEWHERE...12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500
J/KG OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  NLY MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE WEAK
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL
RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.