[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120532
SWODY1
SPC AC 120531

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FHU 35 NNW SAD
40 NNE GUP 45 W EGE 25 S GCC 50 ENE 81V 45 S PHP 15 NE ANW 50 W YKN
45 SSE FAR 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 35 NW BML 15 E LCI ISP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DEEP S/CNTRL-SRN APPALACHIANS/OH VLY...
DENNIS REMNANTS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE UP THE OH VLY TUE. WIND FIELDS
HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...BUT MODELS STILL INDICATE A BELT OF
ENHANCED FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WRAPPING FROM THE DEEP S...THEN
CYCLONICALLY ABOUT THE REMNANT LOW INTO THE OH VLY.  GIVEN INFLUX OF
TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...A LARGE PART OF THE SRN STATES
NWD INTO THE OH VLY WILL BE UNSTABLE...MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT
FORECAST FOCUSING ANY GIVEN AREA FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED SEVERE
THREATS.  ATTM...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WILL OCCUR.

STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR WELL S-E OF THE LOW
CENTER/CLOUDS...NAMELY FROM PARTS OF THE MID-OH VLY SWD ACROSS THE
SRN APPALACHIANS TO THE DEEP S.  TSTMS THAT DEVELOP FROM MS TO THE
CAROLINAS COULD TEND TO BOW IN UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW OF 20-30 KTS.
 THIS MAY CAUSE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  FARTHER N...LOW-LEVEL
TURNING SHOULD BE STRONGER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ISOLD
BRIEF TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO TSTM THREAT
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TUE.  UPPER HIGH SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS
THE SWRN STATES WITH N-NELY H5 FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT ON MONDAY...AND
LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW/MOISTURE BOUNDARIES MOVING WWD TO THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUE ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO TUE AFTN/EVE TSTM THREAT. 
PRIND THAT AT LEAST ISOLD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CO AND
NM.  H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKER THAN ON MONDAY...AROUND 25 KTS...BUT
SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR TO AROUND
30 KTS.  MOST STORMS SHOULD STAY MULTICELLULAR...WITH PULSE-TYPE
LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUSTS...SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 07/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.