[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120044
SWODY1
SPC AC 120042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
SNY 20 E IML 55 S GLD 40 NW EHA 40 ENE TAD 15 S PUB 15 SSW DEN FCL
45 SSW BFF 40 ENE SNY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 30 NW ALM
40 N SAF 55 W COS 10 S LAR 55 SE DGW 45 NW CDR 35 WSW PIR 15 WNW ATY
25 ESE RRT ...CONT... 70 NW CMX 35 WNW EAU 30 N MCW 40 ENE OMA 25
WNW SLN 20 SW P28 25 ENE CSM 25 SE FSI 35 ESE MLC 40 S PBF 45 SW CBM
45 ENE MEI 10 SW LUL 15 SE ESF 15 N CLL 25 NNE SAT 25 W LRD
...CONT... 20 WNW AQQ 25 SSE CSG 30 SE RMG 30 S CSV 25 ESE OWB 30
NNW EVV 15 WSW HUF 15 ENE IND 35 SE LUK 10 NNW 5I3 15 SE PSK 10 WSW
RDU 30 SW ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A FEW TSTMS MANAGED TO FORM ALONG THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT AND
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES OVER SWRN SD...NWRN NEB AND ERN CO THIS AFTN.  A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK
BUOYANCY/FOCUS...THOUGH A COUPLE OF ERN CO CELLS APPEAR TO BE
ROTATING AMIDST 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.  TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP
AT RANDOM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS/
INCREASING UPSLOPE FRONT RANGE FLOW CONTINUE.  A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY OVER
ERN CO.  TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER... BUT THE SEVERE
THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 04Z.

...SRN APPALACHIAN AREA...
REMNANTS OF DENNIS WERE MOVING VERY SLOWLY NWD VCNTY THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OH/MS RVRS THIS EVENING.  THERMAL BUOYANCY REMAINS LOW NEAR
THE CORE...WITH MLCAPE AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG WELL SE OF THE REMNANT
LOW ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN AREA.  HERE...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT TSTMS ALONG LOCAL BANDS OF CONVERGENCE. 
THESE BANDS APPEAR LARGELY DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING.

...MN...
AXIS OF MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG WAS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG TSTMS
NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NCNTRL-SWRN MN THIS AFTN. VERTICAL
SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WAS AOB 30 KTS...MAINTAINING GENERALLY
MULTICELL STRUCTURE STORMS WITH PULSE-TYPE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
 AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWD AWAY FROM THE
REGION...VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT IMPROVE.  AS
SUCH...ASIDE FROM ISOLD SEVERE THREATS THROUGH MID-EVENING...IT
APPEARS THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

...ERN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST WITH A
SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SWWD THROUGH MAINE IN ITS
WAKE.  GIVEN SUNSET AND WANING INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT THE
TSTM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.

..RACY.. 07/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.