[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 112007
SWODY1
SPC AC 112005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DEN 25
NE FCL BFF MHN LBF 40 SSE GLD EHA 40 SW AMA CVS 25 WSW TCC 55 SSE
RTN 10 S TAD DEN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
CHA BNA BWG 50 WSW LOZ TYS AVL 45 WNW CAE 70 N AYS 40 SE CSG 30 NW
LGC 40 W CHA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW
ELO 45 W HIB 55 E FAR 30 NE FAR 20 ENE GFK 55 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 30 NW ALM
40 N SAF 55 W COS 40 SW LAR 35 N RWL 35 NNW RIW COD 10 SE BIL 45 WNW
4BQ 20 ESE 4BQ 30 N RAP 45 NW PIR 20 SW JMS 75 NE DVL ...CONT... 35
NE IWD 45 ENE OMA 20 NE SLN 40 NE GAG 35 SE CDS 40 NNE ABI 20 WNW
MWL 40 NNW FTW 25 SSE OKC 45 WSW CNU 25 WNW OJC 30 ENE IRK 35 SW MMO
25 N LAF 15 SSE MIE 15 NE LUK 25 SSW CRW 35 NW SSU 40 ENE EKN 15 SSW
DCA 10 ENE WAL ...CONT... 20 ENE NEL 25 NW AVP 30 WNW SYR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND
SERN STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NRN MN....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HRCN DENNIS IS NEAR MKL /SWRN TN/.  IMPRESSIVE BAND OF TROPICAL
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA SWD INTO WEST CENTRAL FL. 
MEANWHILE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD
ACROSS ERN ND INTO NWRN MN AS MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN REGION.

...ERN TN VALLEY INTO GA...

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE 30-40 KT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF DENNIS AND WLY 30-35 KT FLOW
INDICATING MINIMAL SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.  AIR MASS
OVER THE AREAS WHERE THERE ARE FEEDER BANDS AT THIS TIME IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. 
THUS...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME AS WELL AS
SOME DAMAGING WINDS.

...NRN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN AREA OF
MAXIMUM HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ME INTO VT/NH. INTERESTING
HOW STORMS ARE MOVING SWD ON BACKSIDE OF LOW LOCATED OVER NOVA
SCOTIA WHERE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG.  SERN
AREAS OF ME HAVE COOLED FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY CREATING A BOUNDARY
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID/UPR 80S WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPR 50S. THUS...STORMS CAN PRODUCE SOME HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

...NWRN/N CENTRAL MN...

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME SWRN ONTARIO SWWD
ACROSS NWRN MN TO A LOW ALONG THE E CENTRAL ND/MN BORDER AT 18Z. 
AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE FROM NWRN/N CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO
ERN SD WHERE MLCAPE HAVE REACHED AROUND 3500 J/KG.  THUS...HAVE
ADDED SLGT RISK AREA HERE WHERE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM ARE
AROUND 8.5C/KM INDICATING THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER SERN CO WHERE THERE IS ALSO 10-15
KT OF UPSLOPE FLOW MOSTLY IN E CENTRAL AND SERN CO.  STORMS ARE
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NERN NM...AND WOULD EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER SERN CO INTO E CENTRAL CO THRU EARLY
TONIGHT.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE 8.5 TO
9C/KM...THUS WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HAIL
AND DOWNBURSTS THRU EARLY TONIGHT.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.