[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111639
SWODY1
SPC AC 111638

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DEN 25
NE FCL BFF MHN LBF 40 SSE GLD EHA 40 SW AMA CVS 25 WSW TCC 55 SSE
RTN 10 S TAD DEN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
CHA BNA BWG 50 WSW LOZ TYS AVL 45 WNW CAE 50 NE MCN LGC 30 NW LGC 40
W CHA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE NEL 25 NW AVP
30 WNW SYR ...CONT... 35 NE IWD 45 ENE OMA 20 NE SLN 40 NE GAG 35 SE
CDS 40 NNE ABI 20 WNW MWL 40 NNW FTW 25 SSE OKC 45 WSW CNU 25 WNW
OJC 30 ENE IRK 35 SW MMO 25 N LAF 15 SSE MIE 15 NE LUK 25 SSW CRW 35
NW SSU 40 ENE EKN 15 SSW DCA 10 ENE WAL ...CONT... 30 SSE DMN 30 NW
ALM 40 N SAF 55 W COS 40 SW LAR 35 N RWL 35 NNW RIW COD 10 SE BIL 45
WNW 4BQ 20 ESE 4BQ 30 N RAP 55 N PHP 30 SSE BIS 60 NNW DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...AL/GA/TN/SC/NC...
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DENNIS IS NOW ESE OF MEM...MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.  WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS NEAR THE CENTER IS
GREATLY LIMITING SURFACE HEATING...WITH CLOUD CHARACTER AND
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT LITTLE DESTABILIZATION IS
OCCURRING IN THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF BROKEN CLOUDS EXISTS
FROM EASTERN AL ACROSS GA/SC INTO EASTERN TN.  THIS IS BENEATH LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS AND IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
/EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OVER 300 J/KG/.  HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES...ROUGHLY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CSG...ATL...
CHA...CSV.  WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO LOCALLY
ENHANCE SHEAR. THREAT WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE AFTER DARK DUE TO LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TODAY.  WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY OVER EASTERN CO/SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST
NM...TRANSPORTING RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE
FOOTHILLS.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES...DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS
EVENING INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  DENVER CYCLONE MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL
ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
STORMS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP INTO EASTERN CO...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWEST KS.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS FORM ALONG THE RATON RIDGE AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST NM.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS TODAY OVER THE NORTHEAST
STATES...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RESIDUAL SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  LACK OF
WELL-DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE
OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.

..HART/GUYER.. 07/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.