[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111251
SWODY1
SPC AC 111248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GAD 25
ESE MKL 40 NNE MKL 45 SE PAH 10 N HOP 25 SW BWG 10 WSW CSV 65 ESE
CHA 30 WSW AHN 25 W MCN 15 E AUO 30 WNW LGC GAD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
AKO 30 SSE BFF 25 ESE AIA 20 S MHN 30 S LBF 50 SSE GLD 25 SSE EHA 40
SW AMA CVS 25 WSW TCC 45 WSW CAO 25 S LHX 30 W AKO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE NEL 25 NW AVP
30 WNW SYR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 30 SW 4CR 55
WSW RTN 50 S 4FC 40 SW LAR 35 N RWL 35 NNW RIW COD 10 SE BIL 45 WNW
4BQ 20 ESE 4BQ 30 N RAP 55 S Y22 10 SW BIS 70 NW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW IWD 45 ESE SUX
10 E RSL 25 NNW GAG 45 S CDS 40 WNW ABI 40 SW ABI 10 SE BWD SEP 15
NNW FTW 50 SW TUL 25 NE BVO 40 SSE OJC 30 NNW UIN 35 SW MMO 25 N LAF
15 SSE MIE 15 NE LUK 25 SSW CRW 35 NW SSU 40 ENE EKN 15 SSW DCA 10
ENE WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY....

...TN VALLEY AREA TODAY...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DENNIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD FROM
NRN MS TO THE MO BOOTHEEL/SRN IL BY LATE TONIGHT.  LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED NEAR THE WARM CORE REMNANTS OF
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...WHILE SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED E/SE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER /ALONG THE ERN CONFLUENCE
BAND/ WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND SURFACE
HEATING GREATER.  THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...50 KT
SLY/SELY FLOW OFF THE SURFACE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES IN THE OUTER ERN BANDS TODAY.

...PLAINS AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
ON THE LARGER SCALE...HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT/ND LIFTS NEWD
INTO CANADA...AND A CLOSED HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN. 
IN THE WAKE OF THE MT/ND MID LEVEL TROUGH...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB/THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN.  BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE AND A RESIDUAL PLUME OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG OVER WRN MN/ERN SD.  HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE TODAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NEWD. ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE RATHER MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FATHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...A WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP BENEATH ROUGHLY 25 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. 
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SW NEB ACROSS
ERN CO.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...WITH A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE IF
CONVECTION CAN EVOLVE INTO A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS THIS EVENING.

...NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A BELT OF LOW-MID 60 DEWPOINTS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO VT/NH/ME WILL SAG
SWD TODAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A MID-UPPER SPEED MAX ROTATES SSEWD
FROM ERN QUEBEC...AROUND A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK.  THIS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  GIVEN
THE 50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THIS AREA AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS...A
FEW SWD MOVING STORMS WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OR BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT ANY SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 07/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.