[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110536
SWODY1
SPC AC 110534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
0A8 20 WSW TUP 30 ESE JBR 30 E POF 20 SE MDH 30 WSW OWB 10 WNW BWG
20 WNW CSV 20 SSE CHA 15 ESE ANB 25 N MGM 20 WNW SEM 35 WSW 0A8.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
LIC BFF 30 ESE CDR 20 SE MHN 20 NE MCK 60 N GCK 25 SSE EHA 30 SSW
AMA 20 W LBB 30 NE HOB 40 SE ROW 35 NNE ROW 45 WSW CAO 25 S LHX 25 N
LIC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE NEL 25 NW AVP
30 WNW SYR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 30 SW 4CR 55
WSW RTN 50 S 4FC 40 SW LAR 35 N RWL 35 NNW RIW COD 10 SE BIL 45 WNW
4BQ 20 ESE 4BQ 30 N RAP 55 S Y22 10 SW BIS 70 NW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW IWD 45 ESE SUX
10 E RSL 25 NNW GAG 45 S CDS 40 WNW ABI 40 SW ABI 10 SE BWD SEP 15
NNW FTW 50 SW TUL 25 NE BVO 40 SSE OJC 30 NNW UIN 35 SW MMO 25 N LAF
15 SSE MIE 15 NE LUK 25 SSW CRW 35 NW SSU 40 ENE EKN 15 SSW DCA 10
ENE WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP
S...MID MS AND TN VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...DEEP S/MID MS VLY/TN VLY...
REMNANTS OF DENNIS ARE PROGD TO SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER THE MID
MS/LWR TN VLYS MONDAY...BUT SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST
THIS WILL OCCUR.  DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WRAP INTO THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND BUOYANCY SHOULD BE GREATER THAN DURING
LANDFALL.  THUS...TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE NUMEROUS MON AFTN WITHIN
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES TO THE E AND SE OF THE SURFACE LOW. 
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN AL
NWWD INTO MID-WRN TN DURING PEAK HEATING AND THAT REGION SHOULD BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLD TORNADOES.  TORNADO PROBABILITIES...WHICH ARE
DRIVING THE CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK...REFLECT THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY OF
THE REMNANT LOW.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING SWD ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE
EARLY TODAY WITH AT LEAST A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT BEING MAINTAINED
THROUGH MON AFTN.  ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /50S DEW POINTS/
AND HEATING OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BENEATH MINUS 8-10C H5
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE ALONG
THE CO FRONT RANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.  OTHER STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS CINH IS ERODED FROM SWRN SD INTO WRN NEB SWD TO ERN NM
ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/TERRAIN.

AS THE GREAT BASIN UPPER HIGH EXPANDS...FLOW ABOVE THE HIGH PLAINS 
WILL TURN MORE N/NWLY AND INCREASE.  MAGNITUDE OF BOTH SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN THAT BOTH THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER...A HIGHER THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED TSTMS SHOULD EXIST AND...THUS...INTRODUCTION OF THE SLGT
RISK.

INITIAL CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER AS
STORMS PROPAGATE S/SEWD INTO WRN NEB...WRN KS...TX/OK PNHDLS AND ERN
NM DURING THE EVENING.

...UPPER MS/MO RVR VLYS...
H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ATTM IS
EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND MIGRATE NEWD INTO ONTARIO BY MON EVE. 
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE GIVEN SLACKENING FLOW ALOFT OVER ALL OF
THE UPPER MS/MO RVR VLYS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO MN...SERN SD...NEB IN
WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE.  LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME CINH DURING THE AFTN...PRIMARILY FROM SERN SD INTO MN. 
GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ANY STORM THAT
FORMS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN IN THE MULTICELL SPECTRUM.  STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT JET OVER NERN QUE ATTM
WILL DIG SWD AND CROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN.  BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN LOW-MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES AOB -12C.  THUS...BANDS OF FAST MOVING TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MON AFTN...LIKELY FAVORING THE STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GENERALLY FROM NH/ERN MA EWD.  FAST
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE LINE SEGMENTS
TO POSSIBLY BOW PRODUCING ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..RACY/BANACOS.. 07/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.