[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110031
SWODY1
SPC AC 110029

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
MOB 40 ESE MEI 15 ENE CBM 35 SSE MSL 10 E GAD 40 WNW MCN 35 NE MGR
10 W CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
RRT 25 NNW GFK 40 SSE JMS 35 SSW ABR 20 SSE VTN 35 NNW LBF 40 N IML
30 W IML 25 NNE AKO 30 ENE CYS 40 SSE DGW 30 WNW DGW 50 NNE CPR 81V
15 WNW RAP 50 SE Y22 35 ESE P24 55 NNE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 40 SW ROW
40 NE 4CR 30 NNE LVS 40 SW PUB 35 W COS 30 NNW 4FC 40 S RWL 40 NE
RKS 30 NW BPI 15 WSW IDA 40 SSW 27U 60 ENE S80 30 SE S06 55 WNW CTB
...CONT... PSM 20 N LEB 25 NE PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CRP 10 S AUS 45
ENE OKC 10 SE EMP 15 ENE MKC JEF 25 SSE CGI 20 W BWG 15 S LOZ 40 WSW
GSO 40 SE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 50 NE ATY 25 S
EAR 50 SW GAG 45 NE SJT 40 NW HDO 30 NW LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL
AREA AND PARTS OF THE DEEP S...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...ERN GULF COASTAL AREA/DEEP S...
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NW TOWARD NERN MS OVERNIGHT.
 EVENING MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BAROCLINIC BOUNDARIES
AND GIVEN ENVELOPE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS TRAVELING WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUOYANCY HAS BEEN MINIMAL.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO/
MINI-SUPERCELL POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED... BUT
NON-ZERO.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG AND A TORNADO/
CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD OCCUR WITH THE RAINBANDS AS THEY
ROTATE THROUGH THE FL PNHDL...CNTRL/SRN GA...AND MUCH OF AL
OVERNIGHT.

...NRN PLAINS...
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1004 MB LOW OVER NCNTRL SD WITH A TRAILING
LEE-TROUGH SWWD TO THE NEB PNHDL.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR
WINNIPEG THROUGH CNTRL ND...THEN INTO NRN WY.  STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AS CAP IS ERASED.  APPROACH OF
STRONG H5 IMPULSE FROM WY AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY AID
IN INCREASING STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.

0-6KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/
LEE-TROUGH...BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. 
STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG/ WILL COMPENSATE FOR
WEAKER SHEAR AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  BUT...GIVEN THE
LARGELY PARALLEL COMPONENT OF THE 2-6KM SHEAR WITH RESPECT TO THE
BOUNDARIES...TSTMS SHOULD GENERALLY EVOLVE INTO LINES QUICKLY. EWD
MOTION WILL LIKELY BE SLOW WITH SEVERE THREATS /DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL/ REMAINING CONFINED TO CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF ND...CNTRL
SD AND WRN NEB THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FARTHER W...TSTMS BENEATH THE WY IMPULSE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD
ACROSS WY AND SERN MT TOWARD THE WRN DA'S THIS EVENING.  STRONGER
INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO ERN WY INTO WRN SD PER 00Z
RAOBS...WITH MUCH LESS INSTABILITY OVER WY AND WRN ND. THUS...TSTMS
MAY TEND TO INTENSIFY NEAR/N OF THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN WY TOWARD
KRAP WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  ACROSS SERN
MT...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY OCCUR.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ON THE MOUNTAINS OF CNTRL NM BENEATH H5
TEMPERATURES OF -10C HAVE CONGEALED INTO CLUSTERS ALONG THE TX/NM
BORDER.  CLOVIS VWP SUGGESTS A 25 KT-6KM FLOW ATOP WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...CONDUCIVE FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET.

..RACY.. 07/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.