[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 102003
SWODY1
SPC AC 102002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
GPT JAN 30 SSW MEM 40 NNE TUP 15 NW GAD 20 NNE LGC 40 NNE MGR 40 NNW
GNV 15 SSE SRQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
RRT 15 N GFK 10 SE PIR CDR 55 S 81V 4BQ 50 WSW P24 55 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 10 NNE TCS
35 NNW ONM 10 SSW SAF 35 SE ALS 35 W COS 30 NNW 4FC 40 S RWL 15 ESE
RKS 25 W EVW 25 S BYI 20 SW SUN 45 NNE BOI 25 SE BKE 25 WNW BKE 25
ESE PDT 25 ENE ALW 25 W PUW 25 WNW GEG 10 S 4OM 75 NW 4OM ...CONT...
INL 25 W AXN 25 ESE HLC 65 SW GAG 25 SSE CDS 55 SW SPS 20 SE SPS 15
NNW FSI 20 SSW END 10 W EMP 10 WNW FLV 50 N SZL 40 SSW BLV 10 ESE
OWB 30 NE 5I3 25 SW LYH 40 SSW RIC 15 SE ORF ...CONT... PSM 20 N LEB
25 NE PBG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS IS MAKING LANDFALL ATTM AT PENSACOLA BAY IN
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.  INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN OUTER BANDS ACROSS
PARTS OF NRN FL / SRN GA HAVE SHOWN ROTATION AT TIMES...WITH AREA
VWPS SHOWING LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION /
TORNADOES.  

SOME HINTS OF DRIER AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SW
ARE APPARENT ATTM.  AS A RESULT...SOME LOCAL STEEPENING OF LAPSE
RATES -- AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED UPDRAFTS -- COULD LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 
GREATEST SHORT-TERM THREAT WOULD THUS APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE / WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN FL
PENINSULA INTO SRN GA / SERN AL.

THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NNWWD...REACHING NERN
MS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW TORNADO THREAT TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD NWS ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND AL THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

...THE NRN PLAINS...
COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED EWD INTO CENTRAL ND ATTM...WITH MOIST AND
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INDICATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. 
HOWEVER...MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED
WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS.  

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
LIMITED TO IMMEDIATELY ALONG -- AND PERHAPS MORE LIKELY BEHIND --
COLD FRONT...WHERE PARCELS MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO REACH AN LFC. 
OVERNIGHT...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY OCCUR AS
LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION INCREASES INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS.

ASSUMING STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- THOUGH NOT
EXCESSIVELY STRONG -- SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW ORGANIZED
/ SEVERE STORMS TO EVOLVE.  THOUGH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
EXIST WITH ANY WARM-SECTOR STORM...GREATER THREAT MAY BE FOR HAIL
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SEVERE THREAT
MAY EXTEND AS FAR WWD AS CENTRAL MT...AS STORMS INITIATE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD ENEWD WITH TIME.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS AGAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM SERN CO SWD INTO NM / W TX...WITHIN MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALONG LEE TROUGH.  THOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN GENERAL
DUE TO GENERALLY WEAK FORCING...A SMALL STORM CLUSTER OR TWO COULD
EVOLVE GIVEN DRY AIR / POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT.

THOUGH MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS.

..GOSS.. 07/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.