[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101629
SWODY1
SPC AC 101628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
GPT 40 N JAN 25 S MEM 40 NNE TUP 20 WNW ANB 40 NE MGR 45 WNW ORL 25
SSW FMY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W
RRT GFK PIR CDR 55 S 81V 4BQ 25 NNW DIK 60 NNW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 25 W AXN 30 WSW
OFK 25 ESE HLC 20 S DDC 65 SW GAG 75 S CDS 15 S ABI 25 ESE SEP 35
ESE DAL 20 WNW PRX MLC 25 NW TUL 25 SSE EMP 10 WNW FLV 50 N SZL 40
SSW BLV 10 ESE OWB 30 NE 5I3 25 SW LYH 40 SSW RIC 15 SE ORF
...CONT... PSM 20 N LEB 25 NE PBG ...CONT... 30 S DMN 10 NNE TCS 35
NNW ONM 10 SSW SAF 35 SE ALS 35 W COS 30 NNW 4FC 40 S RWL 15 ESE RKS
25 W EVW 25 S BYI 20 SW SUN 45 NNE BOI 25 SE BKE 25 WNW BKE 25 ESE
PDT 25 ENE ALW 25 W PUW 25 WNW GEG 10 S 4OM 75 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR PNS.  LOCAL VAD PROFILER WINDS SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA...ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN GA...MUCH OF AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  THESE
WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE TODAY DURING THE LANDFALL PHASE OF THE
SYSTEM.  SO FAR...DISCRETE CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN RARE EXCEPT
FOR THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEDGE OF POTENTIALLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ROTATING INTO THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF DENNIS...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES LATER TODAY. THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO PARTS OF EASTERN MS AND NORTHERN AL.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
STATES...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
MT/NORTHWEST WY.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
THIS EVENING.  SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT.  A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT.  HOWEVER...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN POST-FRONTAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN ND/WESTERN
SD/SOUTHEAST MT THIS AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE IN
THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL/ISOLATED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE NEB PANHANDLE...CENTRAL SD...AND EASTERN ND.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HI PLAINS...
HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOCALLY REACHED...RESULTING IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY DEEP
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP.

..HART/GUYER.. 07/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.