[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101247
SWODY1
SPC AC 101246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
GPT 40 N JAN 25 S MEM 40 NNE TUP 20 WNW ANB 40 NE MGR 45 WNW ORL 25
SSW FMY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
RRT 15 SW FAR 20 E PIR 35 N CDR 81V 30 ENE 4BQ 25 NNW DIK 60 NNW
MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ELO 20 SSW AXN
30 WSW OFK 25 ESE HLC 20 S DDC 65 SW GAG 75 S CDS 20 SSE ABI 25 ESE
SEP 40 ESE DAL 25 NW PRX 20 NW MLC 25 NW TUL 25 SSE EMP 10 WNW FLV
50 N SZL 40 SSW BLV 10 ESE OWB 30 NE 5I3 25 SW LYH 40 SSW RIC 15 SE
ORF ...CONT... 40 W ELP 30 NNW 4CR 45 W RTN 25 SSW COS 20 SW FCL 35
NW LAR 50 NNW RWL 25 W EVW 60 SSE BYI 40 N BOI 10 E LWS 20 S GEG 25
NNE EPH 45 WSW 4OM 55 WNW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSM 25 NW LCI 10 NNW
EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NE GULF STATES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT....

...NE GULF COAST AREA...
HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE AREA FROM MOB TO PNS.  AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES...OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SW
GA/SRN AL.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  OTHER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY ALONG THE W COAST OF FL IN THE OUTER ERN BAND WHERE VERTICAL
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG.  THOUGH WINDS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE FL
PENINSULA LATER TODAY...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE W COAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE BROKEN BAND
OF DISCRETE STORMS AND 0-1 KM SRH NEAR 300 M2/S2. 

...NRN PLAINS AREA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER
THE INTERIOR PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD
TO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED EWD INTO CENTRAL ND AND NW
SD.  REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PERSISTENCE OF A VERY WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND STRONG CAP OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 68-72 F AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.  EXPECT
THE CAP TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO ALONG AND ON THE
IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL LAG WEST OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 07/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.