[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100545
SWODY1
SPC AC 100543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
GPT 10 SE JAN 25 S MEM 40 NNE TUP 20 WNW ANB 15 NE ABY 10 SW VLD 15
WSW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
INL 25 ESE FAR 40 NW HON 25 NNE CDR 35 SE 81V 55 NE 4BQ 50 N DIK 60
NNW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ELO 20 SSW AXN
30 WSW OFK 25 ESE HLC 20 S DDC 65 SW GAG 75 S CDS 20 SSE ABI 25 ESE
SEP 40 ESE DAL 25 NW PRX 20 NW MLC 25 NW TUL 25 SSE EMP 10 WNW FLV
50 N SZL 40 SSW BLV 10 ESE OWB 30 NE 5I3 25 SW LYH 40 SSW RIC 15 SE
ORF ...CONT... 40 W ELP 30 NNW 4CR 45 W RTN 25 SSW COS 20 SW FCL 35
NW LAR 50 NNW RWL 25 W EVW 60 SSE BYI 40 N BOI 10 E LWS 20 S GEG 25
NNE EPH 45 WSW 4OM 55 WNW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSM 25 NW LCI 10 NNW
EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF
COASTAL AREA AND PARTS OF THE DEEP S...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...CNTRL-ERN GULF COASTAL AREA/DEEP S...
OFFICIAL NHC FCST OF HRCN DENNIS PROJECTS THE CENTER VCNTY MOBILE
BAY LATE AFTN SUN...THEN INTO ERN MS BY 12Z MON.  LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL INCREASE AS DENNIS TRANSLATES NWWD....WITH STRONGEST
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LIKELY IN ERN MS...SRN AL...SWRN GA AND THE FL
PNHDL. LACK OF STRONGER WLYS IN THE MID-HIGH TROPOSPHERE MAY KEEP
THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED MINI-SUPERCELLS LOW.  FURTHERMORE...LACK OF
ANY DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONES AND EXPANSIVE ENVELOPE OF DEEP MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS TRAVELLING WITH THE HRCN MAY MITIGATE THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.  NONETHELESS...THE ISOLD TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
NON-ZERO AS THE STRONGER RAINBANDS ROTATE ABOUT THE CENTER ACROSS
THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AND PARTS OF THE DEEP S.

...NRN PLAINS...
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO ORE WILL GLANCE OFF THE
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...ULTIMATELY DEAMPLIFYING OVER ND AND THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES SUN NIGHT.  WEAK FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
SITUATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA SWWD INTO CNTRL ND AND SRN MT THROUGH
SUN AFTN.

BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST /DEW POINTS AOA 70F/ AND GIVEN
STRONG HEATING...POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. 
INHIBITION MAY TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AS THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE COOLS SLIGHTLY ALONG PERIPHERY OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. 
THUS...TSTM INITIATION VCNTY THE FRONT MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTN. 
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN MANITOBA FIRST...THEN EITHER BUILD SWD ALONG
THE FRONT...OR DEVELOP SEPARATELY OVER ND.  STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER MT...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD IMPROVE
DURING THE EVENING FARTHER E.  VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD
COMPENSATE FOR THE INITIAL MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS.  THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE GIVEN THAT THE ORE
WAVE WILL BE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK HEATING.

OTHERWISE...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MOISTEN UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN MT/NRN
WY AS THE FLOW TURNS UPSLOPE IN ADVANCE OF THE ORE IMPULSE.  TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTN AND ISOLD STORMS MAY
SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
 ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY OCCUR OVER SRN MT/NRN WY WITH
THESE STORMS.  EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AS THE
H5 IMPULSE TRANSLATES NEWD AND LLJ INCREASES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT SUN. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN
SD AND MUCH OF ND WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL.

..RACY/BANACOS.. 07/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.