[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091939
SWODY1
SPC AC 091938

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
MOB DHN MGR 35 NNE GNV 15 NW VRB 25 SSE MIA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW
DVL 50 SE MOT 30 SE DIK 60 NW REJ 15 SSE MLS 45 N MLS 70 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW 3B1 20 N HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ACY 20 NNW DCA
15 SSE LBE 15 NE PIT 25 WNW BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE FHU 65 N SVC
25 SSE FMN 50 WSW MTJ 55 ESE VEL 30 WNW RWL 35 SSW CPR 30 WNW CPR 10
NNE RIW 25 ENE BPI 25 SW EVW 45 WNW ENV 40 NW EKO 45 NNW OWY 75 WSW
27U 20 NNW GTF 80 NW GGW ...CONT... 60 WNW ANJ 15 NE MTW 40 S OSH 20
SW RFD 20 WNW UIN 40 S OJC 40 ESE P28 35 S GAG 45 NNW ABI 25 NNE BWD
25 NE ACT 25 N PRX 15 SSE FSM 60 S UNO 25 W HOP 50 NNE HSV 55 SSE
TYS 40 ESE CLT 40 WSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MHN BBW 20 SW
OFK 25 NNE SUX 30 NW MKT 15 ENE BRD 25 NW BJI 45 WNW FAR 55 NE MBG
30 SSE PHP 10 WSW MHN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL / PORTIONS OF SRN GA / SRN
AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT / WRN
ND...

...FL / SERN AL / SWRN GA...
FAVORABLY STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE DENNIS EXISTS ACROSS THE FL KEYS / THE WRN 2/3 OF THE
FL PENINSULA ATTM.  ENHANCED FLOW WILL SPREAD NWWD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SRN AL / SWRN GA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
DENNIS CONTINUES NWWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF.

THOUGH STRONGEST ONSHORE BANDING -- AND GREATEST SHORT-TERM TORNADO
THREAT -- EXISTS N OF TAMPA ATTM...LONGER-TERM THREAT EXISTS ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE PENINSULA AS OTHER BANDS FORM / MOVE ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING.  AS STRONGER FLOW SPREADS NWD...EXPECT
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITHIN OUTER BANDS TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SRN
AL / SRN GA THROUGH 10/12Z.

...PARTS OF MT / WRN DAKOTAS...
MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS EVOLVED FROM SWRN MT NEWD INTO NERN MT
ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS ALONG /
AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH -- ALL WITHIN REGION OF SHORT-WAVE RIDGING /
CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...MODELS FORECAST RIDGING TO SHIFT EWD
TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS AS CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADS ACROSS WRN AND INTO
CENTRAL MT.  SOME INCREASE IN CUMULUS FIELD IS NOTED ACROSS FAR SWRN
MT...WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FORECAST TO CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL MT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM W TO E WITH TIME ACROSS
THIS REGION...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES / INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  THEREFORE...A FEW STRONGER /
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL MT
THIS AFTERNOON.

GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT
ACROSS FAR ERN MT / WRN ND...NEAR AND JUST W OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS /
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH.  MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO AN
MCS.

...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS EVOLVED THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF
SURFACE HEATING BENEATH MID-LEVEL LOW / COLD POOL.  ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NY / PA INTO THE NYC
AREA...WHICH CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION.

THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS WEAK...A COUPLE OF THE MORE
POTENT STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL OR A LOCALLY STRONG GUST
THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING BEFORE THUNDER THREAT WANES.

...HIGH PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CO SWD
ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONALLY...COMBINATION OF WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND PRESENCE OF LEE
TROUGH MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN / OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. 
FURTHER...SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
TO DRIFT SEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS -- PARTICULARLY IF ANY ORGANIZED
/ SMALL-SCALE COLD POOLS COULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...VERY WEAK FLOW
ALOFT -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CO / SRN WY -- SUGGEST THAT STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED / PULSE IN NATURE.  SOMEWHAT
GREATER -- THOUGH STILL LIMITED -- SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE WITH
TIME ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / W TX...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER
DEEP-LAYER VEERING / SHEAR IS INDICATED.

THOUGH CONVECTIVE / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DIURNAL IN
NATURE...STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / W TX THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..GOSS.. 07/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.