[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091628
SWODY1
SPC AC 091626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
PNS DHN MGR DAB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW
DVL 55 SE MOT 25 SE DIK 65 NW REJ 15 SE MLS 45 N MLS 70 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW 3B1 20 N HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ACY 20 NNW DCA
15 SSE LBE 15 NE PIT 25 WNW BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE FHU 65 N SVC
25 SSE FMN 50 WSW MTJ 55 ESE VEL 25 NNW CAG 25 SE RWL 35 SSW CPR 30
WNW CPR 10 NNE RIW 25 ENE BPI 25 SW EVW 45 WNW ENV 40 NW EKO 40 WSW
OWY 55 SW S80 30 N 3DU 80 NW GGW ...CONT... 60 WNW ANJ 15 NE MTW 40
S OSH 20 SW RFD 20 WNW UIN 40 S OJC 40 ESE P28 35 S GAG 20 SW ABI 30
S BWD 25 ENE ACT 25 N PRX 15 SSE FSM 65 ESE HRO 35 E JBR 50 NNE HSV
55 SSE TYS 40 ESE CLT 40 WSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MHN BBW 20 SW
OFK 25 NNE SUX 30 NW MKT 15 ENE BRD 25 NW BJI 45 WNW FAR 55 NE MBG
30 SSE PHP 10 WSW MHN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT AND ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS 
PRIMARILY FL....

...FL REGION...
HURRICANE DENNIS IS MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES S OF PNS
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER OUTER RAIN BANDS
CURRENTLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA AND WILL SPREAD NWD
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS DENNIS SHIFTS NWWD. LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS/SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE RAIN BANDS...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES. REFERENCE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DENNIS.

...MT/ND AREA...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN ND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WERE ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS WWD INTO ERN MT. THESE
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE
VALUES FROM 2000-4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF 
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS SERN MT AND WRN ND AND THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT LATER TODAY FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE DOWNDRAFTS MAY AID IN SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP.
IF STORMS DON'T DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEY MAY TONIGHT WHEN LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES THE FORCING. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...NY/PA AREA...
A COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -14 TO -16C. ALTHOUGH THE 
VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG...AND A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THOUGH DYNAMICAL FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE WEAK...STRONG
INSTABILITY AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT/MORNING
CONVECTION MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
PERIOD. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...PW/S IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AND
EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF STORMS SUGGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF HAIL/WIND THREAT.

..IMY/GUYER.. 07/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.