[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091256
SWODY1
SPC AC 091254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE
DVL 20 ENE DVL 25 NE BIS DIK SDY 55 N ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
PNS DHN MGR DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW 3B1 20 N HUL
...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 15 NNW MRB 10 ESE FKL 15 WNW BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 25 SW RFD 20
WNW UIN 30 WNW SZL 30 ESE P28 35 S GAG 20 SE CDS 40 W ABI 35 S BWD
25 ENE ACT 20 NNW PRX 20 ESE PGO 35 WNW LIT 55 SSW JBR 20 S MKL 10 E
CHA 40 NW AND 35 WSW SOP 40 SE EWN ...CONT... 15 SSW DUG 65 NNW SVC
25 SSE FMN 50 WSW MTJ 55 ESE VEL 25 NNW CAG 35 ESE RWL 35 SSW CPR 30
WNW CPR 35 SSE WRL 30 WNW RIW 25 SW EVW 45 WNW ENV 35 N WMC 30 W BNO
10 N BKE 30 NNE 3DU 80 NW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE FAR 45 ESE JMS
10 NW PIR 45 SSE PHP 10 WSW MHN BBW 20 SW OFK 25 NNE SUX 15 ENE RWF
30 NNW BRD 25 ENE FAR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
ND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ERN
GULF COAST....

...ERN GULF AREA...
HURRICANE DENNIS IS MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY 100 MILES S OF PNS BY 10/12Z.  THE
OUTER ERN/NERN RAIN BANDS HAVE OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND S FL...AND
THIS CONVECTION WILL REACH N FL LATER TODAY.  THOUGH THE STORM CORE
WILL NOT GET CLOSER TO THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS/SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS.  EXPECT THE
TORNADO THREAT TO BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT TODAY WHERE CLOUD BREAKS
ALLOW LOCALIZED DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH ANY TORNADOES SHOULD BE
RATHER ISOLATED/SHORT-LIVED GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY PRONOUNCED
BAROCLINIC ZONES TO FOCUS THE THREAT.

...ND AREA...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO THE
NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH...A CYCLONE OVER N CENTRAL MT WILL DEVELOP EWD TO WRN ND BY
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT.  12Z SOUNDINGS FROM
BIS/GGW SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-4000
J/KG...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 F BASED ON A VERY
WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.  STILL...THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS WRN AND NRN ND. 
THE STRONG INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE
THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE STRONGER MID-UPPER
FLOW LAGGING W OF THE SURFACE FRONT. 

...NY/PA AREA...
A COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW IS ROTATING SLOWLY EWD OVER NY/PA TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND.  12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BUF/PIT REVEAL COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-15 C AT 500 MB/ AND LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
C/KM.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL LOW...BUT THE
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1500 J/KG...AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PA/NY.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 07/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.