[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 090542
SWODY1
SPC AC 090540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT
GFK BIS DIK SDY 55 N ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
PNS DHN MGR DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ACY 20 S AOO
10 WNW DUJ 25 NNE BUF ...CONT... 60 NW 3B1 20 N HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 25 SW RFD 20
WNW UIN 30 WNW SZL 30 ESE P28 35 S GAG 20 SE CDS 40 W ABI 35 S BWD
25 ENE ACT 20 NNW PRX 20 ESE PGO 35 WNW LIT 55 SSW JBR 20 S MKL 10 E
CHA 40 NW AND 35 WSW SOP 40 SE EWN ...CONT... 35 SSW DMN 40 WSW ONM
25 SSE FMN 50 WSW MTJ 55 ESE VEL 25 NNW CAG 35 ESE RWL 35 SSW CPR 30
WNW CPR 35 SSE WRL 30 WNW RIW 25 SW EVW 45 WNW ENV 35 N WMC 30 W BNO
10 N BKE 30 NNE 3DU 80 NW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE FAR 45 ESE JMS
10 NW PIR 45 SSE PHP 10 WSW MHN 15 WSW BBW 20 SW OFK 25 NNE SUX 15
ENE RWF 30 NNW BRD 25 ENE FAR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ERN GULF STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS....

VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES...AS EXIT
REGION OF STRONG ZONAL HIGH LEVEL JET NOSES TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST.  MODELS SUGGEST LATTER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY/TONIGHT
...WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES.

SHARP UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO FALL INTO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST COLD UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY
ACCELERATE EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...REACHING NORTH ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE U.S...WILL REMAIN WEAK.  MODELS SUGGEST EMBEDDED IMPULSE
NEAR UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS HURRICANE DENNIS PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF  MEXICO.

WITH MUCH OF THE NATION IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH WARM
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...ANY SEVERE EVENTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY MINOR...AND WIDELY SCATTERED. 
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS IN PROXIMITY TO
THE HURRICANE...AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE STRONG
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

...EASTERN GULF STATES...
CENTER OF DENNIS IS EXPECTED WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS BY 12Z TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SHEAR IN RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF STORM COULD BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF MOBILE BAY
INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS EAST OF CIRCULATION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC ACTIVITY IN OUTER BANDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  GREATEST THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN PENINSULA.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME VERY MOIST ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BENEATH NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  SURFACE
DEW POINTS NEAR 70F APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR
OR EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.  FORCING TO WEAKEN MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST IMPULSE NOW
PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF WESTERLIES...COULD CONTINUE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING.

IF CAP BREAKS...RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...WITH
SHEAR PROFILES JUST AHEAD OF FRONT...SOUTH/EAST OF WILLISTON...
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS... DEVELOPING
WITH BETTER FORCING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

OTHER ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER WEST...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA...AS EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING JET
STREAK CONTRIBUTES TO FORCING. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH...IN TURN...WILL TEND TO
MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT.

...NORTHEAST...
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ...ROTATING AROUND
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW...WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY.  WITH MID-LEVELS REMAINING RELATIVELY
COLD...ENOUGH HEATING APPEARS LIKELY ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SURFACE
COLD POOL TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/ BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

..KERR/BANACOS.. 07/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.