[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 090131
SWODY1
SPC AC 090129

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0829 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
SRQ 40 SSW VRB PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BID 15 WSW ORH
15 ESE PSF GFL 20 N PBG ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 35 WSW HUL 10 SSE EPM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS SOW INW BCE
10 N U24 EVW MLD 35 N ENV 35 WSW OWY 70 ESE BNO 60 ESE S80 10 NW 3DU
25 NNE CTB ...CONT... 70 NE MOT BIS 10 WNW MBG PHP 20 NNE VTN MHE 10
SSW ATY 40 N RWF HIB 10 N INL ...CONT... 20 NNE MQT IMT DBQ OTM FNB
P28 10 SW LTS SEP ACT GGG ELD GWO MSL 50 NNE HSV CHA 30 SSW RMG ATL
CAE 30 WNW ILM HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ROC ELM IPT
CXY SHD HTS DAY AZO 60 NNE MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

CORRECTED GENERAL TSTM LINE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS (DIRECTION OF
ARROW)

WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...STORMS MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN/DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME DUE TO
STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL COOLING.

...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS**...
SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY VERY STRONG IN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...TO THE NORTH OF HURRICANE DENNIS.  CENTER
OF CIRCULATION WILL PROGRESS NORTHWEST OF CUBA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH AREAS WEST
NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS BY DAYBREAK.  AS THIS OCCURS...FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN STRONGLY SHEARED.  THIS WILL
MAINTAINING RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES... PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWER KEYS...WHERE MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ON
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE COULD STILL BECOME
FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING....FROM
PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA.  BEST
CHANCE MAY BE NEAR WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX NOW
DRIFTING SOUTH OF MASON CITY IOWA. 

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING THREATS...PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

..KERR.. 07/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.