[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081631
SWODY1
SPC AC 081629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
FMY 50 SE FMY 20 S MIA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE
CVS 10 WNW ABI 65 WNW AUS SAT 40 WSW HDO DRT 30 NW P07 25 E GDP ROW
40 SSE CVS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW ANJ 30 ENE GRB
15 WNW DBQ 10 WNW OTM 25 NNE STJ 15 WNW END 30 E CSM 35 SE SPS 25 NE
DAL 20 W TXK 10 WNW MEM 35 NW MSL 20 NNE LGC 35 NE MCN 40 SSE AND 50
WSW AVL 25 NW BNA 20 SW EVV 20 NNW HUF 20 W AZO 45 NE MKG 45 N APN
...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK ...CONT... 65 WSW TUS 40
SSE PHX 50 NW GUP 25 NNW MTJ 45 ENE RKS 30 SW BPI 30 NNE ENV 40 WSW
ELY 45 NNW TPH 15 W LOL 50 WNW OWY 15 S LWS 45 NW CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SWRN FL PENINSULA
AND THE KEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NM SEWD INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY OF SRN TX....

...SW FL PENINSULA AND THE KEYS...
HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CUBA AND MOVE INTO THE EXTREME
SERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL IMPROVE DURING THE
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES
IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE DENNIS ISSUED BY NHC.

...EXTREME SERN NM SEWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF S CENTRAL TX...
A BAND OF 30 KT MID LEVEL NLY WINDS EXTENDED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
SWD INTO SWRN TX ON THE BACK SIDE OF WEAK TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD INTO SERN TX. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN
TX SHOWED EXTREMELY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 700 TO 500 MB WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WERE AIDING IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. INTENSE
HEATING...TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THIS MID LEVEL CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO SURFACE
BASED STORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH 25-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
MULTICELL STORMS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO.

...PLAINS AREA...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD THROUGH EXTREME SERN
SD AND NWRN IA THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 25-30 KT LLJ. COMPLEX MAY GRADUALLY BACKBUILD SSWWD
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS INTO NERN NEB...BUT WILL BE FIGHTING STRONGER
CAP AS IT MOVES SWD. GIVEN THE ORGANIZED COLD POOL... HEATING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER... STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS WEAKENING OVER NRN KS. LBF SOUNDING
SHOWED THIS AREA WAS STRONGLY CAPPED AND SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW. HOWEVER..STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WITH
SEVERE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/ WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON.

....UPPER MIDWEST...
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NRN MN. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS HAVE THUS FAR
LIMITED HEATING...THOUGH MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS MN SHOWED MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. SOME QUESTION ABOUT STORM INITIATION GIVEN
CLOUDS...AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER EAST ACROSS EXTREME ERN
MN/NWRN WI WHERE INSTABILITY IS WEAKER. IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...APPEARS BEST INSTABILITY MAY
REMAIN WEST OF AREA OF STRONGER DYNAMICAL LIFTING...SO ONLY LOW
PROBS FOR SEVERE ATTM.

...MT...
HEIGHT RISES AND A STRONG CAP SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ACROSS ERN MT. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY DEVELOP WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON IN
AREA OF STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH IN
PACIFIC NW. INVERTED-V PROFILES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

...SERN GREAT LAKES AREA...
A COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD.
DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH 500 MB TEMPS FROM -13 TO -15C WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z.

...EXTREME SERN AZ/SW NM AREA...
PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD FROM MEXICO NWD ALONG THE
NM/AZ BORDER. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN HIGH BASED
STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. A
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS.

...MID ATLANTIC AREA...
SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE...WITH WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT FOR STORMS APPEARS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE EVEN LOW PROBS FOR SEVERE.

..IMY/GUYER.. 07/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.