[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 082004
SWODY1
SPC AC 082002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
FMY 50 ESE FMY 15 SSE MIA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
LBB 45 WSW ABI 35 N JCT 45 S JCT 15 NNW DRT 20 ESE MRF 25 E GDP 15
SE ROW 25 W LBB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 40 SSE PHX
50 NW GUP 25 NNW MTJ 45 ENE RKS 30 SW BPI 30 NNE ENV 40 WSW ELY 45
NNW TPH 15 W LOL 50 WNW OWY 15 S LWS 45 NW CTB ...CONT... 60 WNW ANJ
30 ENE GRB 15 WNW DBQ 10 WNW OTM 25 NNE STJ 15 WNW END 30 E CSM 35
SE SPS 25 NE DAL 20 W TXK 10 WNW MEM 35 NW MSL 20 NNE LGC 35 NE MCN
40 SSE AND 50 WSW AVL 25 NW BNA 20 SW EVV 20 NNW HUF 20 W AZO 45 NE
MKG 45 N APN ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SERN NM / W TX...

...SRN FL / THE KEYS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND NRN PERIPHERY OF DENNIS CONTINUE
SPREADING WNWWD ACROSS SRN FL AND THE KEYS ATTM.  WITH
MODERATELY-STRONG /AROUND 40 KT/ AND WEAKLY-VEERING LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER / ROTATING STORMS WITHIN OUTER BANDS.
 THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS STORM
CONTINUES MOVING NWWD ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO.

...SERN NM SEWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY...
VERY WARM / DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER HAS EVOLVED ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL
TX INTO SERN NM ATTM...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S HAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO YIELD 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE.  

THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE TRANSPECOS / LOW ROLLING PLAINS...MAIN AREA FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION SHOULD REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX / SERN NM.

GIVEN HIGH STORM BASES...MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS MAY INCREASE / SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS PARTS OF W TX
OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY SELY LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THIS REGION.

...MT...
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH STILL OFF THE PAC NW COAST HAS RESULTED IN
SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. HOWEVER...AS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES...AND
SPREAD EWD INTO CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY SPREAD AS FAR E
AS ERN MT / WRN ND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT EWD
EXTENT OF CONVECTION.  

MODERATE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER / SEVERE
STORMS...PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL MT WWD.  WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES /
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO WOULD LIKELY BE
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM ERN WY / THE BLACK HILLS REGION/ SWD
INTO NRN NM...THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE VERY FAR
EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO SUBSIDENCE / CAPPING ALOFT. 
THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL / LIMITED IN EWD EXTENT.

...MN...
AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED ACROSS SRN MN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS. 
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY RE-INITIATE ACROSS THIS
REGION AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SERN MANITOBA / NRN ND...OR
PERHAPS IN WEAK CONVERGENCE / APPARENT OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL MN N OF
WEAKENING CONVECTION.

WITH 30 KT NLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION ABOVE AN INCREASING
SLY LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE SWD WITH TIME.  ATTM... WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY 5% HAIL / WIND THREAT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO STORM INITIATION.

...GULF COAST STATES FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO SRN AL...
WEAK UPPER LOW / COLD POOL OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION ABOVE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
REMAINS QUITE WEAK...A MARGINALLY-SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH A STRONGER PULSE-TYPE STORM.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...
MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED ATTM BENEATH COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LK HURON.  THOUGH SHEAR IS
WEAK AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
/ RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MARGINAL
HAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

...ERN AZ / WRN NM...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF LOWER CO VALLEY UPPER LOW
ABOVE VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER HAS YIELDED MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN NM AND ADJACENT ERN AZ. 
GIVEN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW GUSTY / DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WARRANTING LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY FORECAST ACROSS
THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING.

..GOSS.. 07/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.