[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081259
SWODY1
SPC AC 081257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
FMY 50 SE FMY 20 S MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LNR 35 WSW CID
40 NNE STJ 30 SW TOP 15 WNW END 40 ENE CSM 20 ENE SPS 30 NW TXK 30
ESE PBF 20 N CBM 20 ENE CSG 35 NE MCN 40 SSE AND 50 WSW AVL 25 NW
BNA 20 SW EVV 10 SSE CMI 20 SW CGX 25 SSW MBL 10 S GRB 20 NE LNR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 45 ESE GBN
35 E PHX 45 S INW 45 ENE INW 35 NW GUP 25 NE MTJ 45 ENE RKS 30 SW
BPI 30 NNE ENV 35 W ELY 45 NNW TPH 15 WNW LOL 65 S BNO 35 E RDM 45 E
DLS 65 NW FCA ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SW FL AND THE FL KEYS....

...SW FL AREA...
HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CUBA AND EMERGE OVER THE
EXTREME SE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.  THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
HURRICANE WILL OVERSPREAD SW FL AND THE KEYS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR RAIN BAND SUPERCELLS AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES. 

...PLAINS AREA...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ARE MOVING SSEWD
ACROSS NE SD/SW MN.  THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY LIFT WITH
A 25-30 KT LLJ OVER THE GUST FRONT...AND ASCENT ALONG THE SRN FRINGE
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER MANITOBA AND ERN ND.
 SWD PROPAGATION ON THE OUTFLOW MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATER MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 200 J/KG.  THOUGH
ABSOLUTE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK...ROUGHLY 180 DEGREES OF
VEERING FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND/OR
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

OTHER STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS...AND ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE.  THESE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED BY
LOW-LEVEL WAA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 25-35 KT LLJ...AND MUCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO
THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON..AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL.

...MT AREA...
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ISOLATED...WITH STORM INITIATION TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.  THE MORE PROBABLE AREA
FOR STORM FORMATION WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS OF SW MT THIS EVENING...IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING WRN WA. 
INVERTED-V PROFILES...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND 30-40 KT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

...NRN OH/WRN NY/WRN PA/SE LOWER MI AREA...
A COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW OVER LOWER MI WILL DRIFT EWD THROUGH
TONIGHT.  DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH ROUGHLY 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -14 C WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.

...SE AZ/SW NM AREA...
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SE AZ/SW NM.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING
WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXED LAYERS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS AS STORMS PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

...MID ATLANTIC AREA...
THE AREA OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM CINDY IS SPREADING NEWD OVER ERN PA/NJ TOWARD NY AND SRN NEW
ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR NOW LAGS TO THE SW
ACROSS ERN VA/NC.  WHILE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF VA/NC...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME
AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME MARGINAL AT BEST.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 07/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.