[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080545
SWODY1
SPC AC 080543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
FMY 50 SE FMY 20 S MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL
ORH ACK ...CONT... 40 SSW PSX NIR COT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW
GBN 45 ESE GBN 50 N TUS 30 WNW SAD 20 NNE SOW 35 NW GUP 25 NE MTJ 45
ENE RKS 30 SW BPI 30 NNE ENV 35 W ELY 45 NNW TPH 15 WNW LOL 65 S BNO
35 E RDM 45 E DLS 55 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LNR 35 WSW CID
40 NNE STJ 30 SW TOP 15 WNW END 40 ENE CSM 20 ENE SPS 30 NW TXK 30
ESE PBF 20 N CBM 20 ENE CSG 35 NE MCN 40 SSE AND 50 WSW AVL 25 NW
BNA 20 SW EVV 10 SSE CMI 20 SW CGX 25 SSW MBL 10 S GRB 20 NE LNR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN FL....

AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK DIGS EAST SOUTHEAST
OF THE ALEUTIANS TODAY...CLOSED LOW...WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND. MODELS
SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...BUT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY...LIFTING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST STATES INTO ALBERTA BY EARLY SATURDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. 
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...BROAD COLD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO
VALLEY REGION.

EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MOSTLY MINOR...
GENERALLY HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THREATS.
EXCEPTION MAY BE PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
WHERE APPROACH OF HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY.

...SOUTHERN FLORIDA/KEYS...
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF APPROACHING HURRICANE MAY SUPPORT RISK OF TORNADOES IN
OUTER BANDS AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON.  POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CENTER OF DENNIS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF SEVERE
THREAT TODAY...BENEATH AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOIST...AND SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ALONG A COUPLE OF NARROW AXES.  ONE SHOULD EXTEND
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING IMPULSE ON
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.  THE OTHER
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN WEAK UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS A CONCERN...BOTH AXES SHOULD BECOME
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND SOME HAIL...BUT...EVEN WITH PRONOUNCED
VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
QUITE WEAK...MITIGATING SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...MONTANA...
INHIBITION IS A CONCERN BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...
PARTICULARLY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.  HOWEVER...MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO
EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA.  FORCING COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE
NOCTURNAL COOLING BECOMES INHIBITIVE.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND COULD STILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONG
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
...MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
BULK OF REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
REGION DURING THE DAY.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVELS NEAR UPPER LOW COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR LAKE BREEZES...AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

..KERR/TAYLOR.. 07/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.