[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071949
SWODY1
SPC AC 071948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W
RRT AXN 15 NE FSD 35 W YKN 10 SW PHP 25 S RAP GCC 25 ESE WRL 25 NNE
LVM 35 WNW GDV 70 N ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
AGS HKY LYH 40 ESE CHO 30 ENE RIC 30 WNW ECG 30 S FAY 50 S CAE 45 N
AGS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
PSX 20 N COT 15 NNE DRT 25 SW P07 25 N MRF 35 E LVS 30 NNE TAD 25 SE
LHX 20 E DHT 70 ESE LBB 25 WNW BWD 50 SE BWD 10 SW ACT 35 S DAL 20
WNW TYR 35 SSW SHV 20 ESE POE 25 SSW LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 45 S GNT
20 NE MTJ 45 ESE VEL 25 ENE SLC 30 S EKO 25 S OWY 55 SSW MSO 30 WNW
GTF 70 NW GGW ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 40 SE DLH 10 E EAU 15 NE GRB 30
SW MBL OSC ...CONT... 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 40 SSE CRP 25 WNW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DSM 30 NNW MHK
DDC 30 NW GAG 55 W CSM 20 W DUA 40 NE PRX 35 NNW LIT 30 SW JBR 25 W
MDH 30 NNE ALN 40 ESE BRL 15 SSE DSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
/ NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD
ACROSS TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS / VA...

...NRN PLAINS INTO SRN MT / NRN WY...
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATTM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY AND
INTO SWRN MT...INVOF SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN
/ WRN ND WSWWD ACROSS SERN MT INTO NRN WY.  STORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS OF
SD...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY INITIATE FURTHER N INVOF FRONT ACROSS WRN
ND / NWRN SD.  

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND
SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- NOW FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
/ SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES -- SHOULD INCREASE EWD
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SPREADS ACROSS THIS
REGION.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. 
OVERNIGHT...SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A SEWD-MOVING /
POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NEB THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO SERN TX...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS E TX
ATTM...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG / SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER W...STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM SERN CO SWD INTO SERN NM...WHERE 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE IS INDICATED ATTM.  SELY / UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
REMNANT OUTFLOW WHICH NOW LIES FROM ROUGHLY CVS TO BWD.

MODEST NLY / NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS...WITH MAIN
THREATS BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS MAY EVOLVE
INTO A LARGER CLUSTER OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE SWD /
SSEWD ACROSS PARTS OF W AND PERHAPS CENTRAL TX.

...CAROLINAS / VA...
REMNANTS OF CINDY -- NOW CENTERED NEAR THE VA / NC BORDER -- SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING NEWD WITH TIME.  MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS
NE THROUGH S OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS CONTINUING TO FUEL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL SC NNEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN NC INTO SRN VA.  MODERATE / WEAKLY-VEERING LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELD JUST E OF CIRCULATION CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING BUT CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD AS SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NEWD.

..GOSS.. 07/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.