[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080058
SWODY1
SPC AC 080057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W
RRT GFK 15 NE FSD YKN 15 NW VTN PHP 45 ESE REJ 15 NW REJ 20 NW DIK
55 NNW MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
SOP GSO 20 SSE CHO 40 ENE RIC 20 E ECG 20 N OAJ 30 S FAY 25 SSW SOP
45 W SOP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCC 45
WSW CAO 35 SE LHX 40 E LAA LBL CDS 65 N ABI 40 ESE BGS 15 SSE MAF 35
NNE HOB TCC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CRP 25 WNW LRD
...CONT... ELP SAF 40 NNE ALS 30 E CAG RWL CPR 50 SSE WRL RIW LND 10
WSW SLC ENV ELY TPH 35 NE NID NID 50 ESE FAT 15 SSE TVL 35 WNW U31
BAM OWY 55 SSW MSO GTF 70 NW GGW ...CONT... 15 N PBG GFL 50 WSW ALB
MSV PHL 10 E ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW TUS 20 SW PHX
SAD 45 E DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL BRD MKT ALO 25
WNW DSM OMA 20 W LNK EAR 35 SE HLC CSM MWL 60 SW TYR 50 SW LFK 20 N
BPT 40 NW LFT HEZ JAN 40 ENE JAN MEI 30 NNE MOB MAI 25 NW AYS 35 NW
SAV CLT ROA EKN MGW ZZV 25 SSE LEX CSV 25 NE CHA 20 SSE RMG GAD MSL
OWB 35 S HUF DEC MMO 10 ESE SBN MBS 55 NNE MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN PLAINS....

MUCH OF ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING/DIMINISHING WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING.  EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS WILL INCLUDE.../1/ CONVECTION ASSOCIATED REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH LIKELY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND /2/ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO
INCREASE/INTENSIFY THIS EVENING.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEEMS TO BE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  BULK OF
CONVECTION LIKELY WILL SPREAD WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING
THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/DELMARVA PENINSULA REGION...WHERE STABLE
BOUNDARY AND WEAK CAPE SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST NARROW LINE OF STORMS MAY PERSIST IN TRAILING CONFLUENT BAND
...BACK INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM SECTOR...SPREADING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. 
VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY EAST SOUTHEAST OF
SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  HOWEVER...STABILIZATION OF WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BEGIN TO MITIGATE THIS
THREAT BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...
MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. 
HOWEVER...WEAK TROUGHING IS STILL EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING INHIBITION NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF TROUGH IS MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE...WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO AROUND
3000 J/KG.  AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
UPPER IMPULSE...RAPID INCREASE IN INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS
IS EXPECTED FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL/NORTH DAKOTA.  EVOLUTION OF
LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE.  DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY TEND TO DEVELOP
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM
PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

...SRN PLAINS...
FOR DETAILS...REFER TO LATEST WW AND ASSOCIATED SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS.

..KERR.. 07/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.