[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071632
SWODY1
SPC AC 071631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W
RRT AXN 20 NNE FSD 25 W YKN 20 WSW 9V9 PHP RAP 40 ENE 4BQ GDV 70 N
ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
AGS HKY LYH 40 ESE CHO 30 ENE RIC 30 WNW ECG 30 S FAY 50 S CAE 45 N
AGS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
PSX 20 N COT 10 WSW P07 25 N MRF 35 E LVS 30 NNE TAD 25 SE LHX 20 E
DHT 70 ESE LBB 25 WNW BWD 50 SE BWD 10 SW ACT 35 S DAL 20 WNW TYR 35
SSW SHV 20 ESE POE 25 SSW LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 45 WSW DLH 10 E
EAU 35 WSW OSH 30 ESE MKE 15 ENE MTC ...CONT... 20 N PBG ISP
...CONT... 40 SSE VCT 60 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 SSE ELP 35 SSE SAF 20
SW ASE 45 ESE VEL 20 ENE DPG 20 NNW ELY 60 W ELY 40 S BAM 40 WSW SUN
35 NE 27U 30 WNW GTF 70 NW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DSM 30 NNW MHK
30 NW GCK 20 E EHA 55 W CSM 20 W DUA 40 NE PRX 35 NNW LIT 30 SW JBR
25 W MDH 30 NNE ALN 40 ESE BRL 15 SSE DSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
PIEDMONT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL/ERN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...

...CAROLINAS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...
SURFACE LOW/REMNANTS OF CINDY IS LOCATED OVER FAR NRN GA/WRN NC AS
OF 16Z...AND WILL CONTINUE A NEWD TRACK LIKELY ALONG STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER NWD ACROSS WRN NC AND NEWD INTO
THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE REGION.  SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE BAROCLINIC
WITH TIME WITH A PSEUDO-COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN
GA ATTM.  A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR OVER MUCH OF THE
CAROLINAS AND INTO ERN VA WILL FUEL INTENSE STORMS...LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF MINI-SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS NEAR AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING.

...CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO WRN LA...
MCV ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT MCS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS ERN TX TODAY.  AIR MASS IS
VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 70S AHEAD OF
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SEWD AT AROUND 35 KT.  AS
CAPPING BREAKS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...STORMS SHOULD
INCREASE/STRENGTHEN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO E-CENTRAL/SERN TX AND POSSIBLY
WRN LA THROUGH THE DAY.  THOUGH AMBIENT WIND FIELDS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH PROFILER DATA OVER ERN TX INDICATING MID LEVEL WINDS FROM
15-20 KT...NARROW AXIS OF STRONGER FLOW IS LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF MID
LEVEL MCV.  THUS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUSTAIN AN ORGANIZED
LINE/POSSIBLE BOWING MCS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS AS CAP WEAKENS OVER AND JUST EAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO ERN NM AND WRN TX LATER TODAY.  OTHER ISOLATED STORMS
MAY FIRE INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE WEST TX PLAINS
AS AFTERNOON HEATING WEAKENS CAP.  NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS FROM 20-30
KT WILL SUPPORT MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS
WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A WIND THREAT AS THEY SPREAD SSEWD THROUGH
THE EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS...
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN MT/WRN ND THIS MORNING...WITH
BROAD AREA OF 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS. AFTERNOON HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG EWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN CAP
SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION NEAR 21Z. 
WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AND SUPPORT 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR BY LATER TODAY.  THEREFORE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEARS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH-BASED
SUPERCELLS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING
ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL/ AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING OVER
WRN/CENTRAL ND AND NWRN SD ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SEVERE MCS/POSSIBLE BOW ECHO
WHICH WILL THEN RACE SEWD THOUGH THE EVENING/EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS
WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING PRIMARY THREAT AFTER DARK.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 07/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.