[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071234
SWODY1
SPC AC 071232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
LVS 20 NE TAD 25 ESE LHX 25 ENE PVW 60 WNW ABI 10 NNW BWD 15 NNE MWL
10 WSW TYR 35 SSE LFK 40 N PSX 15 ESE HDO 25 ENE FST 25 N INK 40 E
ROW 35 ESE LVS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W
RRT AXN 20 NNE FSD 25 W YKN 20 WSW 9V9 PHP RAP 40 ENE 4BQ GDV 70 NE
ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
AGS HKY LYH 40 ESE CHO 30 ENE RIC 30 WNW ECG 30 SSE FAY 50 S CAE 45
N AGS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 60 WSW RTN
20 SW ASE 35 WNW VEL 25 ENE DPG 50 SSE EKO 55 WSW OWY 50 E BKE 30 NE
S80 50 WNW HVR ...CONT... 25 NW ELO 45 ENE BRD 25 NW MSP 10 W RST 35
SE DBQ 25 SSE BRL 15 SSW LWD OMA 45 ESE HSI 40 W HUT 30 ENE FSI 35 S
ADM 25 SSW HOT 10 S LIT 55 SSW CKV 45 W HTS 10 NW PIT 35 NNE BUF
...CONT... 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 50 SSE VCT NIR COT 70 W COT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ERN
VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HI PLNS AND
CNTRL/SE TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING FROM THE
CNTRL RCKYS AND THE HI PLNS NE INTO THE N CNTRL STATES THIS PERIOD
AS POTENT NE PACIFIC SPEED MAX/TROUGH NOW CROSSING 150W CONTINUES
EWD.  OVER THE ERN U.S...BUILDING OF PLAINS RIDGE LIKELY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLIFICATION OF EXISTING TROUGH.  THIS PROCESS WILL
BE AIDED BY /1/ CONTINUED ABSORPTION OF REMNANTS OF "CINDY" AND /2/
CONTINUED E/SE MOTION OF MCVS AND ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE 
IMPULSES FROM THE SRN PLNS.

...CAROLINAS/SE VA...
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FORMER T.S. "CINDY" IS NEAR ATL ATTM
AND SHOULD MOVE NE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APLCNS TODAY...
REACHING ERN MD/DE BY 12Z FRIDAY.  SURFACE DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF A
WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE FROM CINDY INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND SE
VA.  MODERATE SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND S OF THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BOOST MEAN MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AS BOUNDARY
REMAINS MORE OR LESS STATIONARY.

LOWER TROPOSPHERIC /850-700 MB/ WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY...
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 40 KTS...APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER
AREA ATTM AND SHOULD LIFT ENE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AS CINDY
SHEARS NEWD.  COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD...UPLIFT ALONG
BOUNDARY AND HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED
STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.  LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY YIELD ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SMALL
SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AFTER
SUNSET.

...SRN HI PLNS INTO S CNTRL/SE TX...
WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION AND RECURRENT MCS
OUTFLOWS HAVE PRODUCED A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE FROM NW
TX INTO OK.  S OF THIS AXIS...SELY FLOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
INTENSIFY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING OF THE NM MOUNTAINS. 
AT THE SAME TIME...MODERATE /25-30 KT/ NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT
ON FRINGE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
SUSTAINED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE SUPERCELLS
OVER THE HI PLNS OF ERN NM AND FAR W TX.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE
PRODUCTION OF HIGH WINDS.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

FARTHER E/SE...OTHER STORMS MAY FORM AND/OR INTENSIFY INVOF OF
OVERNIGHT MCS THAT IS NOW OVER N CNTRL TX.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ON
SWRN FRINGE OF AMPLIFYING ERN STATES TROUGH.  THIS MAY CREATE A
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SUSTENANCE AND CONTINUED
SE MOTION OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COMPARED TO SIMILAR MCSS IN
RECENT DAYS.  GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL.

...NRN PLNS...
STLT DATA SUGGEST THAT MAIN SHORT WAVE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE
N CNTRL STATES WILL REMAIN N OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
NEVERTHELESS...CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER FAR ERN MT/WRN ND
LATER TODAY...INVOF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN SASKATCHEWAN.  COUPLED WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY /AVERAGE MLCAPE
TO 3000 J PER KG/ AND 30+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

THE ERN MT/ND STORMS SHOULD BY THIS EVENING CONSOLIDATE INTO A
SUBSTANTIAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS.  THIS SYSTEM LIKELY WILL MOVE
E/SE INTO ERN SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ.
 THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT
WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL.  FARTHER N...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ...MAY
MOVE ACROSS NRN ND...IN MORE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CLOSE TO
COLD FRONT.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.