[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070555
SWODY1
SPC AC 070553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCC
CDS BWD 10 SSW JCT 25 ENE FST INK 40 E ROW TCC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W
RRT AXN 10 S FSD 10 SW 9V9 PHP RAP 30 WNW REJ GDV 70 NE ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
AND HKY LYH 25 SSE CHO RIC 35 WNW ECG 30 SSE FAY 35 SE AGS 45 SSE
AHN 20 NNW AND.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG ISP
...CONT... 25 NW ELO 45 ENE BRD 25 NW MSP 10 W RST 35 SE DBQ 25 SSE
BRL 15 SSW LWD 20 SE SUX 10 SE GRI 40 W HUT 35 ESE FSI 40 NNW DAL 40
SSE GGG 35 SE MLU 55 SSW CKV 45 W HTS 10 NW PIT 35 NNE BUF
...CONT... 50 SSE VCT NIR COT 70 W COT ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 60 WSW
RTN 20 SW ASE 35 WNW VEL 25 ENE DPG 50 SSE EKO 55 WSW OWY 50 E BKE
30 NE S80 50 WNW HVR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS....

IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE
ALEUTIANS...MODELS INDICATE LARGER SCALE NORTHEAST PACIFIC UPPER
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DEEP CLOSED
LOW PROGGED WEST NORTHWEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY. 
DOWNSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE LEE OF THE U.S.
ROCKIES.  RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH NORTHEAST OF SUBTROPICAL
HIGH...WHICH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BORDER.  FARTHER EAST...WEAK
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIFT EAST
OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS...ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.

...SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
STRONGER FLOW FIELDS...INCLUDING 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EAST/
NORTHEAST OF REMNANT TROPICAL CIRCULATION...ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
SEVERE THREAT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
 BENEATH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...THERE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE AMPLE
HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION TO CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG.

UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT...AND VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY PEAK HEATING.  SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL.  STORMS MAY
DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA...BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
WITH MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL NORTH OF REGION...FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST NEAR
THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...AND MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK IMPULSE
WILL PROGRESS INTO AND THROUGH CREST OF UPPER RIDGE BY/ SHORTLY
AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.  WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE EXPECTED TO
REACH 2000-4000 J/KG ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EVOLUTION OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.

IF CAP BREAKS...INITIATION OF STORMS SEEMS MOST LIKELY NEAR SURFACE
TROUGH FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DEVELOP
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS BY LATE EVENING.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGEST STORMS. 
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY FORM A LARGE SURFACE COLD
POOL AND BROADER SCALE STRONG WIND THREAT...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS
LIKELY TO BECOME MOST PROBABLE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS AS IT
STALLS FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FORMS AND DEVELOPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

..KERR/TAYLOR.. 07/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.