[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 062001
SWODY1
SPC AC 062000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N
ABI 35 ESE BGS 30 WNW MAF 40 NNE CNM 45 ESE LVS 20 WSW PUB 15 W FCL
45 W BFF BFF 30 ESE SNY 40 SSW IML 30 WNW GCK 35 SW GAG 30 W LTS 65
N ABI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
CEW 20 S MGM 10 N BHM 20 NW RMG 55 E RMG 25 E ATL 25 S TLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE
OLF 20 WSW OLF 35 ESE LWT 30 NNW BZN 35 NE 3DU 55 SSW CTB 50 NE CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE RKS 40 E RWL
10 NNW DGW 10 N GCC 35 WNW SHR 15 WSW COD 40 WNW LND 40 ENE RKS
...CONT... 75 N GFK 10 S GFK 20 SSW FAR 45 SSW AXN 20 WSW MSP 50 ENE
MSP 25 WSW IWD 35 NE RHI 35 NNE GRB 45 N GRR 15 ENE MTC ...CONT...
35 E OWB 30 SSE BMG 20 ESE DEC 30 WSW MLI 40 NW UIN 20 SE P35 STJ 30
WNW EMP 40 N P28 25 SSW END 50 ESE SPS FTW 35 ESE DAL 35 N TYR 20
ESE MLC 25 NNW FSM JBR 25 NW HOP 35 E OWB ...CONT... 50 SSW PSX 40
NW LRD ...CONT... 30 W ELP 40 SSE TCS 10 NE TCS 10 SSE ABQ 20 ESE
4SL 40 ENE DRO 30 W GJT 35 W PUC 35 NNW DPG 55 SSE EKO 25 SSW BAM 40
NNE WMC 60 SSE BNO 60 SSW BNO 15 W 4LW 10 E RBL 25 N UKI 35 SSE EKA
35 NE ACV 25 NW MFR 25 WNW RDM 60 NE RDM 20 WSW ALW 40 WSW GEG 45
ESE 4OM 30 N 4OM ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 20 S EPM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COASTAL STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN MT...

...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THE
UPPER RIDGE HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE CNTRL
ROCKIES...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAKER MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR THAN IN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WEAKER FLOW
ALOFT SUGGEST STORMS MAY SLOWER TO DEVELOP EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DESPITE THE WEAKER FLOW...0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25 TO
35 KT IS STILL AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS OF CO AND NM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING.


...CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES...

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY HAVE MOVED INLAND AND ARE LOCATED
OVER SWRN AL. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH STORMS
EMBEDDED WITHIN RAIN BANDS E OF THE CENTER ACROSS AL...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING INTO WRN GA LATER THIS EVENING. PRIMARY RAINBAND CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NWD THROUGH SERN AND E CNTRL AL.
CLOUD BREAKS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM
500 TO 1000 J/KG IN VICINITY OF THIS RAINBAND. TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE AUGMENTED WHERE SUPERCELLS ARE LIFTING NWD THROUGH E
CNTRL AL AND INTERACTING WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PROXIMITY
TO PRE-EXISTING E-W BOUNDARY.

...MT...

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER
CNTRL MT WITH MID TO UPPER 50S PERSISTING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS.
RESULTING MLCAPE RANGES FROM AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE CNTRL PART OF
THE STATE TO IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN THE EAST. LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL
MT AND RUC/SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING EWD ACROSS N
CNTRL MT. SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND SPREAD NEWD. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP THE 0-6 KM
VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING.

..DIAL.. 07/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.