[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061625
SWODY1
SPC AC 061623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N
ABI 35 ESE BGS 30 NE INK 35 E ROW 35 SSE RTN 20 WSW PUB 15 WNW FCL
50 NNE CYS 10 NNE BFF 25 NE SNY 40 SSW IML 25 WNW GCK 30 SW GAG 15
SSW LTS 55 N ABI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FRM 25
NE FOD 25 NW DSM 50 E OMA 40 ENE OLU 30 NW OFK 10 SSW MHE 10 ESE BKX
FRM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
PNS 65 NNE MOB 20 WNW SEM 30 NNW AUO 30 E CSG 35 NNE ABY 35 ENE AQQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW
ISN 15 WSW OLF 35 ESE LWT 30 NNW BZN 40 NNE 3DU 55 SSW CTB 50 NE
CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 20 S EPM
...CONT... 35 E OWB 30 SSE BMG 20 ESE DEC 30 WSW MLI 30 N IRK 10 WSW
P35 15 NE FNB 30 WNW MHK 35 W HUT 25 SSW END 50 ESE SPS 40 S FTW 55
SE DAL 45 SSW PRX 20 ESE MLC 25 NNW FSM JBR 25 NW HOP 35 E OWB
...CONT... 50 SSW PSX 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 W ELP 40 SSE TCS 10 NE
TCS 10 SSE ABQ 20 ESE 4SL 40 ENE DRO 30 W GJT 35 W PUC 35 NNW DPG 55
SSE EKO 25 SSW BAM 40 NNE WMC 60 SSE BNO 60 SSW BNO 15 W 4LW 10 E
RBL 25 N UKI 35 SSE EKA 35 NE ACV 25 NW MFR 25 WNW RDM 60 NE RDM 20
WSW ALW 40 WSW GEG 45 ESE 4OM 30 N 4OM ...CONT... 40 ENE RKS 40 E
RWL 10 NNE DGW 15 NE GCC 35 WNW SHR 15 WSW COD 40 WNW LND 40 ENE RKS
...CONT... 75 N GFK 10 S GFK 20 SSW FAR 45 SSW AXN 20 WSW MSP 50 ENE
MSP 25 WSW IWD 35 NE RHI 35 NNE GRB 45 N GRR 15 ENE MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
INTO SRN AL/SWRN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO
NERN MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO
PORTIONS OF WRN IA...

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
12Z SOUNDING FROM DNR INDICATES LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS DESPITE SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  IN
ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS WELL INTO THE MID 50S INTO THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE WITH
LOWER 60S OUT OVER THE SERN CO PLAINS. THUS...AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL AGAIN BOOST MLCAPES INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE BY 20Z. 
MORNING OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST INCREASING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH SPREADS
ESEWD LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM ERN CO INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS.  HOWEVER...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATE MID/UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE WEAKER THIS MORNING THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS BOTH OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPSTREAM.  THEREFORE... SHEAR SHOULD BE A BIT
WEAKER TODAY.  REGARDLESS...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
PERSISTENCE OF 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...EXPECT CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO ERN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
INTO SUPERCELLS...THOUGH OVERALL MODE MAY TRANSITION TO MORE
MULTICELL IN NATURE BY THE EARLY EVENING.  LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING A
FEW VERY LARGE HAIL STONES...WILL AGAIN BE PRIMARY THREAT.  AS
STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS...ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT SSEWD MAINLY
INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION AND W-CENTRAL/NWRN TX AFTER DARK AND
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

...WRN FL PANHANDLE/SRN AL INTO PORTIONS OF SRN/WRN GA...
REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SYSTEM SHIFTS N AND
THEN NEWD THROUGH THE DAY.  ASSOCIATED STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  AS AFTERNOON HEATING DESTABILIZES THE
LOWER LEVELS...MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP WITH
STRONGER CORES /AS EVIDENCED RECENTLY JUST EAST OF MOB/.  THUS...THE
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH WIND
DAMAGE...SHOULD ACCOMPANY STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THIS
REGION.

...CENTRAL/NERN MT...
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST OVER MUCH OF MT THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S AS FAR WEST AS LWT AND HVR AT 16Z.
 IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT
MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED HEATING.  SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS ID AND INTO NWRN MT ON WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS WRN MT LATER TODAY.  THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/STRONG WINDS AS THEY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN MT.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
LINES/MULTICELL CLUSTERS.

...SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO PORTIONS OF IA...
12Z SOUNDING FROM ABR INDICATES MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER
COOL FOR JULY OVER THIS REGION /H5 TEMPS NEAR -12C/.  THIS SHOULD
ALLOW AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING/DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA.  THOUGH
FORCING/CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 25-35
KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH PRIMARY
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 07/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.