[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061255
SWODY1
SPC AC 061253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE
ATY 20 ESE RWF 20 NE FOD 30 NE OMA 15 WNW OLU 25 WSW EAR 50 NE GCK
CSM 55 N ABI 30 ESE BGS 30 WNW MAF 50 ENE ROW 50 SW CAO COS 20 WNW
FCL 45 ESE DGW 20 N CDR 10 SSE ANW 20 ENE 9V9 10 ESE ATY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
PNS 60 SSW SEM 40 SW 0A8 30 NW BHM 20 ESE RMG 15 NNE AHN 60 SSW AGS
45 WNW AYS 40 NW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 20 NE 3B1
45 S HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 35 WSW ONM
45 W 4SL 35 SW GJT 50 W PUC 35 WNW ELY 70 NE SVE 30 E RDM 45 NE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW RRT 25 WSW STC
10 W ALO 25 NNW IRK 30 NW BVO 30 SW MKO 20 WSW FSM JBR 30 SW BWG 40
WNW LOZ 15 NNW UNI 25 ENE CLE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
HI PLNS...AND THE MID MO VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE FROM THE ERN GRT BASIN/CNTRL
RCKYS INTO THE NRN PLNS THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE
NRN BRANCH LOW NOW CROSSING THE BC CST.  IN RESPONSE...EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF EXISTING BROAD TROUGH OVER THE UPR MS
VLY/UPR GRT LKS.

FARTHER S...STLT LOOPS SHOW T.S. "CINDY" CONTINUING TO BECOME
ABSORBED IN SRN STREAM OF THE WLYS...WITH MID LEVEL DRYING NOW
SPREADING NEWD AROUND SRN SIDE OF CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...AT LEAST
ONE ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT IN THE WV IMAGERY
UPSTREAM IN THE SRN BRANCH INVOF THE UT/CO BORDER.


...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS...
DIURNAL HEATING...APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS TODAY...BEFORE HEIGHT RISES BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD REGION IN EARNEST LATER IN THE WEEK.

WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE ONCE AGAIN RISING TO AOA 2000 J/KG...AND WITH
NW TO NNWLY DEEP SHEAR EXCEEDING 35 KTS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
A COUPLE TORNADOES.  INCREASED NLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ALOFT AND
RECENT INCURSIONS OF SLIGHTLY COOL AIR/STORM OUTFLOW OVER THE LOWER
PLAINS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO
CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP MAINLY SSE TOWARD/INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES.  OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN ERN NM...AND POSE A THREAT FOR
HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY THURSDAY SSEWD
INTO PARTS OF W TX.


...SERN STATES...
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF "CINDY" EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NNEWD ACROSS
AL AND GA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOGENESIS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING OF "WARM SECTOR" IN ERN
QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  GIVEN
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLUX...SETUP MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATIONAL TENDENCIES TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES.  SOME THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR SMALL SCALE
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
PERHAPS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS RESIDUAL LLJ REDEVELOPS NEWD INTO
NRN GA/UPSTATE SC.


...NE NEB/ERN SD/SW MN/NW IA...
AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH OVER THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF THE PLAINS LLJ...WILL ENHANCE WAA
ON BACKSIDE OF MS/OH VLY SURFACE RIDGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
THURSDAY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND...OVER PARTS OF THE MID MO VLY.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.