[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060103
SWODY1
SPC AC 060101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
CYS 45 SE 81V 65 N PHP 35 W HON 35 ESE BUB 35 WNW HLC 60 S LBL 35
NNE PVW 10 SW LBB 20 NNE HOB 20 N CNM 40 SW ROW 15 WSW CYS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
HUM 35 SE MCB 10 SW LUL 35 SE MEI 55 SW SEM 30 N CEW 10 NW AQQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW
ORF 30 SW RIC 35 SSW CHO 30 NW MRB 40 NNW CXY 25 SE AVP 20 S EWR 15
ESE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 35 S ABQ 35
NNE 4SL 45 NE CEZ 30 SE 4HV 30 WSW 4HV 45 SSE U24 40 W U24 30 SSE
ENV 35 NE ENV 30 SSW MLD EVW 25 SSE RKS 35 WNW LAR 20 WSW DGW 10 SE
GCC 45 ENE 4BQ 30 ESE GDV 10 NNE SDY 55 N ISN ...CONT... 75 NNW GFK
40 ENE JMS 40 SSE ABR 30 W FSD 25 WNW SUX 35 WNW OMA BIE 25 ENE SLN
ICT 15 NNE TUL 10 NE FYV 60 N LIT 25 NNE HOP 30 WSW LUK 25 WNW CMH
25 W TOL 25 NW CGX 50 NW DBQ 35 SSW EAU 35 WSW RHI 35 ESE RHI 40 N
TVC 10 SE APN ...CONT... 15 SSE PSX 25 W VCT 15 ENE HDO 55 WNW HDO
20 NW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE DELMARVA
REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMINDER OF TONIGHT OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST....

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS SERN
QUEBEC INTO THE NERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
BUILDING FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO WLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION.  THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
WITHIN THIS FLOW...NAMELY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER
FROM WRN SD INTO N CENTRAL NM.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
WRN AREAS OF ME SWWD ACROSS SERN NY STATE AND SWRN WV...THEN
CONTINUES AS A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THRU NWRN AL INTO NRN TX AND
ERN CO.  FINALLY...T.S. CINDY WAS LOCATED S OF SERN LA NOW MOVING
NNEWD TOWARDS EXTREME SERN LA AND SERN MS.  SEE LATEST ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY NHC/TPC FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

...NERN PARTS OF THE U.S. INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...

LINE OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  MLCAPES ARE 500 TO 1500 J/KG FROM S CENTRAL PA INTO ERN
VA.  LATEST RAOB ANALYSIS FROM IAD SHOWS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...LAPSE
RATES ARE BETWEEN 6-7C/KM.  THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.  THUS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS PARTS PA..MD..NJ AND NRN VA.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW FROM TX/OK/KS INTO ERN CO CONTINUES TO
INITIATE CONVERGENCE/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN CO INTO NERN NM...AND
EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF SWRN SD.  HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE
LOWER MO VALLEY AND WEAKER INSTABILITY ON THE LOWER PLAINS MAY LIMIT
SEWD EXTEND OF SMALLER MCS OVER ERN CO TONIGHT...LIMITING TO WRN
KS...THE OK/TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT OVER SERN
LA...SERN MS...SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AS T.S. CINDY MOVES
NNEWD TOWARD EXTREME SERN LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.