[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051950
SWODY1
SPC AC 051948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
CYS 15 W 81V 35 SW REJ 35 SE PHP 20 SW BBW 30 WSW RSL 30 NE CSM 35
ESE CDS 30 E BGS 30 SSE INK 30 SSE GDP 40 NW GDP 15 WSW CYS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
HUL 20 N PSM 35 SW ABE 25 NE MGW 25 ESE CAK 45 NW ERI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
HUM 20 ENE BTR 45 NE MCB 25 NE LUL 55 SW SEM 35 NNW CEW 35 SSE CEW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PSX 25 W VCT
15 ENE HDO 55 WNW HDO 20 NW DRT ...CONT... 25 W ELP 35 S ABQ 35 NNE
4SL 45 NE CEZ 30 SE 4HV 25 N BCE 40 SSW ELY 55 W ELY 50 SE BAM 15
NNW EKO 60 S TWF 30 SSW MLD 25 SSE RKS 35 WNW LAR 10 SSE CPR 25 SSE
SHR 50 W 4BQ 20 NNE MLS 40 NW GDV 75 NW ISN ...CONT... 75 NNW GFK 40
ENE JMS 40 SSE ABR 10 SW BKX 40 SW SPW 30 SW DSM 25 NE STJ 10 WNW
TOP 30 WSW CNU 35 ESE BVO 10 NE FYV 60 N LIT 20 W OWB 30 WSW BMG 15
E DNV 30 SSE MMO 40 SE DBQ 50 NW DBQ 35 SSW EAU 35 WSW RHI 35 ESE
RHI 40 N TVC 10 SE APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL
AREA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
THROUGH THE NERN U.S....

...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
NERN NM THROUGH CNTRL CO AND INTO SERN WY WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD. SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE
SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG E OF HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS
WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE
AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. WV IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH NRN CO. VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IN ADDITION TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
FROM CO INTO SERN WY. A BAND OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ON
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOVE THE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY
FROM ERN CO...SERN WY AS WELL AS SWRN NEB AND WRN KS. SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TOWARD
EVENING. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS
EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND.

...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

THREAT OF MINI SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES
SHOULD PERSIST AS T.S. CINDY MOVES TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND
INLAND LATER TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL EXIST WITH RAIN BANDS E OF
THE CENTER WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STRONGEST CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY PERSIST.


...NERN U.S....

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE OH VALLEY EWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NERN STATES WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXISTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODEST AND SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELL STORMS. THE THREAT OF PRIMARY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS
AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

..DIAL.. 07/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.