[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051634
SWODY1
SPC AC 051632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
CYS 50 S GCC 20 NNE 81V 45 SE PHP 15 NW HSI 30 ESE CSM 30 E BGS 30 S
INK 35 SSE GDP 40 NW GDP 15 WSW CYS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
HUL 20 ESE LCI 35 SW ABE 20 SSW LBE 30 S YNG 25 WNW ERI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
HUM 15 SSE BTR 30 NE MCB LUL 65 SW SEM 15 NW CEW 35 SSE CEW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 20 SSE ONM
35 NNE 4SL 45 NE CEZ 30 SE 4HV 25 N BCE 40 SSW ELY 55 W ELY 50 SE
BAM 10 SE EKO 60 S TWF 30 SSW MLD 25 SSW RKS 40 WSW LAR 50 SW DGW 35
SE SHR 50 W 4BQ 15 NE MLS 30 NW GDV 60 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PSX 30 NW VCT 40
ESE JCT 40 WSW JCT 25 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 40 ENE JMS
40 SSE ABR 10 SW BKX 40 SW SPW 30 SW DSM 25 NE STJ 10 WNW TOP 30 WSW
CNU 35 ESE BVO 10 NE FYV 60 N LIT 20 W OWB 30 WSW BMG 15 E DNV 30
SSE MMO 40 SE DBQ 50 NW DBQ 35 SSW EAU 35 WSW RHI 35 ESE RHI 40 N
TVC 10 SE APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE WRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER OH
RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...NERN WY/WRN SD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
APPEARS ANOTHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTING OVER THE WRN PLAINS.  SURFACE
DEW POINTS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S INTO WRN SD...WHERE 12Z
SOUNDING FROM RAP INDICATED RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
CAP.  WITH MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW /25-35 KT AT H5/ FORECAST
ACROSS ERN WY/WRN SD/WRN NEB/NERN CO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE
HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE...AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE.  A TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...THOUGH WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST SHOULD LIMIT THIS THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS AND SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING/EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS.  FARTHER SOUTH INTO SERN CO AND THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE MID LEVELS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. 
HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
STORMS IN THE FORM OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS TROUGH
THE EVENING.  DEGREE OF HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS
ANY COMPLEX WHICH CAN FORM MAY PERSIST WELL EWD INTO WRN KS/WRN
TX/WRN OK AFTER DARK WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY IS ALREADY INCREASING
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OH.  ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WLY MID LEVEL WINDS...SHOULD SPREAD AT
LEAST A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION THROUGH
THE DAY.  PRIMARY THREAT MAY FOCUS FROM WRN PA NEWD ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES
AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SWD INTO THE REGION. 
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE
SBCAPES BY THE MID AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE
RATES EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS OVER THE REGION.  THESE LAPSE
RATES MAY HAMPER OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER
EXPECT SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW AND SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE
FROM CLUSTERS/LINES THAT SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  FARTHER
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE COLD FRONT...AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM NC INTO
CENTRAL VA/MID ATLANTIC.  COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING...THIS WILL
RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA.  WITH 20-25 KT OF
WLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...STORMS MAY SPREAD AT
LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY SHIFT EAST
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

...SERN LA INTO SRN AL/SRN MS/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
DELTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE BROADER REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS H85 WIND INCREASE AND BACK TO MORE ELY AHEAD
OF T.S. CINDY. WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE AND CLOUD
BASES JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY WIND DAMAGE WITH CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 07/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.