[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050540
SWODY1
SPC AC 050538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
COS 35 ENE FCL 15 WSW BFF CDR 55 WNW VTN 25 S VTN 10 WNW BBW 25 NE
HLC 40 W RSL 30 SSE DDC 45 SSW GAG 30 SSW CDS 45 NE BGS 20 ENE BGS
15 WSW MAF 10 ENE INK 35 WSW HOB 30 SE ROW 45 ENE LVS 20 NW TAD 15
NE COS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
HUL 25 WSW BGR 20 ESE LCI 15 ENE PSF 45 SSW ALB 20 ESE ELM 20 NNE
BFD 15 WSW ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 25 E ALM
40 SE ABQ 25 NNE 4SL 30 NW 4BL 50 SW DPG 65 NNE ENV 60 WNW RIW 30
ESE BIL 45 S GGW 75 NNE OLF ...CONT... 70 N GFK 15 WSW FAR 20 S BKX
SUX 40 N FNB 15 NNW OJC 25 NW JLN 10 W FYV 40 NNW HOT 25 NNW UOX 55
NNE MSL 50 NW CSV 45 NNE SDF 30 NW MIE 40 WNW FWA 20 NE GRR 15 E APN
...CONT... 30 SW BPT 45 W HOU 40 S AUS 20 W HDO 45 SSE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTN ACROSS NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM QUEBEC SWWD OVER THE LOWER GREAT  LAKES DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  ALSO...SWRN U.S. RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY INTO THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND/WRN WA. THIS WILL KEEP NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH AN ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED TROUGH DEVELOPING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER SERN WY/ERN CO THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
ADDITIONAL MCS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES NEWD INTO ME...

BOTH THE NAM/ETA AND GFS DRAG A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION
THRU THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  THE GFS LEADS A SLIGHTLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NEWD OVER SRN QUEBEC...BUT BOTH MODELS CONCUR
THAT MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE INTO ME WILL BE IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  LATEST IR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE ADVANCED EWD EARLY ON TO
ALLOW SOME HEATING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS OVER NY INTO VT
SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  NAM/ETA INDICATE MUCAPE WILL BE 2000-2500 J/KG IF SFC
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID 80S THRU CENTRAL NY STATE.  ANALYSIS
OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM WITH DRY
MID LEVELS.  THUS...EXPECT LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

MODELS PERSISTENT IN KEEPING SLY 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
WEST TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.  COMBINE THIS
WITH NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT...FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT ONCE AGAIN ENHANCED BY SELY UPSLOPE FLOW TO
SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS MUCAPE IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND
3000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-55
KT COMBINED WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP
OVER ERN CO INTO NERN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
INITIALLY A FEW TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP OVER ERN CO...BUT THEN AS
MORE STORMS DEVELOP...A MCS WILL FORM WITH THE MAIN THREATS DURING
THIS TIME BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED BY TPC/NHC OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD WITH THE
CENTER EXPECTED INTO S CENTRAL LA COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
SEE LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE TPC/NHC FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.