[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041958
SWODY1
SPC AC 041957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E
TOL 25 NNW LUK 20 NE HOP 40 NE UOX 55 WSW MEM 55 N LIT 30 WSW UNO 15
N STL 40 SSE MKE 15 SSE OSC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
LVS 20 NNW FCL 20 E DGW 30 SW CDR 60 SE AIA 25 W MCK 20 SW DDC 50
WSW END 55 ESE OKC 30 E DAL 25 W ACT 35 N JCT 25 NE INK 45 SSE LVS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 20 SSE GDP
30 NE ALM 20 ESE 4SL 35 SW CEZ 30 SSE BCE 35 ESE MLF 25 E DPG 25 E
MLD 50 NE RKS 25 ESE LND 45 ESE JAC 15 NE MQM 25 NNE BZN 40 N BIL 35
SSW REJ 40 ESE PHP 25 WSW OFK 10 WNW OMA 55 E OMA 45 NE DSM 40 SW
LSE 30 S EAU 40 ENE RWF 35 NNW ATY 25 SSE JMS 50 NE JMS 25 WNW INL
...CONT... 45 N BML 30 ENE IPT 15 SE HGR 45 NE CHO 25 W RIC 20 SSE
ORF ...CONT... 45 SW GLS 25 S CLL 20 NNE AUS 20 ESE JCT 10 WNW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SSWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF WRN OK / NWRN TX...

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP -- MAINLY INVOF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN -- ACROSS SERN WY / ERN CO / NERN NM ATTM...WITHIN SELY
UPSLOPE FLOW / FAIRLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.  STORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...AND THEN SPREAD SEWD
OVERNIGHT AS MODEST SELY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BENEATH MODERATE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  

WITH SELYS INCREASING AT LOW LEVELS AND PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. 
THOUGH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING SHEAR WITH TIME SHOULD SUPPORT STRONGER STORM
ROTATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING...WHEN SIGNIFICANT HAIL
AND/OR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.  

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS STORMS
MOVE SEWD...ALONG WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.


...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM LOWER MI SSWWD INTO SERN MO /
NERN AR...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  1000 TO 2000 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM SECTOR...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  

MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM SERN
MO TO SRN LOWER MI...AND THUS EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THIS AREA.  WITH TIME...ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS MAY
EVOLVE...LOCALLY ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...STORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY / MID SOUTH
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  

...N TX...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SWD ACROSS N TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LYING
FROM ROUGHLY E CENTRAL NM SEWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND THEN
EWD TOWARD THE SEP / ACT AREA. MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS TX...THOUGH CAP S OF OUTFLOW SHOULD HINDER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  N OF BOUNDARY...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT / WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  AS SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS
EVENING...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS EVOLVE
INTO AN MCS...WHICH SHOULD THEN MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE TRANSPECOS /
HILL COUNTRY REGIONS.  

THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE OVERALL SHEAR
PROFILES...AND THUS SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS -- MAY INCREASE AS POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPS.

..GOSS.. 07/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.