[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041632
SWODY1
SPC AC 041630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E
TOL 25 NNW LUK 20 NE HOP 40 NE UOX 55 WSW MEM 55 N LIT 25 WNW TBN 10
NNW UIN 25 NNW CGX 15 SSE OSC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
LVS 30 W PUB 30 NNE LAR 25 ENE DGW 25 SSW CDR 25 W MCK 20 SW DDC 45
E GAG 55 ESE OKC 30 E DAL 25 W ACT 35 N JCT 25 NE INK 40 SE LVS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 20 SSE GDP
30 NE ALM 20 ESE 4SL 35 SW CEZ 30 SSE BCE 25 E P38 60 N DRA 20 ESE
BIH 45 NW BIH 55 S NFL 35 NNW U31 65 NNE ENV 40 NNW EVW 50 NE RKS 25
ESE LND 45 ESE JAC 15 NE MQM 25 NNE BZN 40 N BIL 35 SSW REJ 40 ESE
PHP 25 WSW OFK 10 WNW OMA 55 E OMA 45 NE DSM 40 SW LSE 30 S EAU 40
ENE RWF 35 NNW ATY 25 SSE JMS 50 NE JMS 25 WNW INL ...CONT... EFK 30
ENE IPT 15 SE HGR 45 NE CHO 25 W RIC 20 SSE ORF ...CONT... 45 SW GLS
25 S CLL 20 NNE AUS 20 ESE JCT 10 WNW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO WRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID SOUTH/MID MS RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RESPECTABLE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING SSEWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 50S FROM SERN WY INTO
ERN CO.  MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SERIES OF LOW
AMPLITUDE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH FLAT WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. 
COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASED ASCENT AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF ERN WY INTO
CENTRAL CO/NRN NM BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  MLCAPES WILL RANGE
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ALLOW STORMS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY SPREAD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN
LATE TODAY AND MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.  THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS
NOT TOO STRONG...ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.  OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE/ORGANIZE INTO ONE MORE MCS/S AND
PROPAGATE/MOVE SEWD AFTER DARK WITH TRANSITION INTO A WIND DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT DURING THE EVENING.

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY ESEWD INTO THIS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY. MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AND ALLOW A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  THOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO SWLY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/PROFILES INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS FROM THE MID SOUTH NEWD
INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON.  REFERENCE SWOMCD 1637 FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS ABOUT NEAR-TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL.  ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO
A BROKEN SQUALL LINE AND SPREAD THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EWD INTO IND/SRN LOWER MI AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY BAND OF SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SRN WI INTO CENTRAL LAKE MI
ATTM...AS THEY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT NWD INTO
NRN LOWER MI TODAY...WITH PRIMARY THREAT REMAINING S-SE OF CURRENT
BAND OF CLOUDS.

...WRN TX INTO NRN TX AND SRN AR/NRN LA...
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED FROM CENTRAL TX
EWD INTO SRN AR/NRN LA AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS.
 ATTM...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AND
BRIEF-LIVED OVER THIS REGION GIVEN WEAK LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 
UNLESS STORMS CAN ORGANIZE ALONG WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SHEAR
APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AND LIMIT
SEVERE THREAT TO PULSE-TYPE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE FARTHER WEST ALONG
SLOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO WRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MAF/S
SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY STRONG CAP.  HOWEVER...HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD ENABLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE ALONG THIS PORTION OF OUTFLOW.  SHEAR IS A
BIT STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY NWD INTO THE WEST TX
PLAINS...AND SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SLOW
MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.