[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041255
SWODY1
SPC AC 041253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
INK 40 SSE CVS 40 SE LVS 60 N ALS 10 S 4FC 30 NNE LAR 50 ESE DGW 30
SE AIA 25 W MCK 20 SW DDC 45 E GAG 55 ESE OKC 30 E DAL 25 W ACT 30
NNW JCT 55 E P07 25 SE INK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E
TOL 45 W LUK 20 NE HOP 40 NE UOX 45 N GLH 55 N LIT 25 WNW TBN 10 NNW
UIN 15 SE MKE 20 SE ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 20 SSE GDP
35 NW GDP 10 S ALM ONM 20 ESE 4SL 35 SW CEZ 10 WSW PGA 25 E P38 60 N
DRA 20 ESE BIH 45 NW BIH 55 S NFL 35 NNW U31 65 NNE ENV 40 NNW EVW
50 NE RKS 25 ESE LND 45 ESE JAC 15 NE MQM 40 ESE HLN 35 ESE LWT 25
SW REJ 15 SSW 9V9 25 S SUX 15 SSE MCW 20 W RST 25 NW MKT 20 N HON 35
S DIK 30 N GDV 60 NNW GGW ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 25 S CLL 20 NNE AUS
20 ESE JCT 50 NE DRT 10 WNW DRT ...CONT... EFK BGM IPT 35 SSW MRB
CHO 30 WNW RIC 30 ESE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS AND
LWR OH VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS INTO
PARTS OF KS/OK AND TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD TROUGH EXPECTED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. THIS
PERIOD AS RIDGES PERSIST OVER THE SWRN STATES AND OFF THE FL CST. 
THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED FROM TEMPORARY PHASING OF SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS
IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS.  STLT/VWP AND PROFILER DATA SHOW
THAT LEAD IMPULSE IN THE SRN STREAM...RESPONSIBLE IN PART FOR
OVERNIGHT KS/OK MCS...IS NOW OVER NE KS/NW MO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CONTINUE ENE INTO NRN IND/LWR MI BY 12Z TUESDAY AS UPSTREAM SPEED
MAX...NOW OVER SW WY/NE UT...CONTINUES ESE INTO SE KS/NE OK.

...LWR MI SW INTO THE MID MS VLY...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING WRN
ONTARIO ATTM EXTENDS FROM ERN LK SUPERIOR TO NW MO.  THE FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE MS VLY LATER TODAY AND MAY SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN LWR MI. OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL
FORM WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NRN IL SEWD INTO SRN/ERN
MO...ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BNDRY/ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
DOWNSTREAM FROM OVERNIGHT MCS.

AIR MASS OVER ERN MO/IL REGION WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
...WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS 
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST /AROUND 20-25 KT/ AND VEERED TO SSWLY. 
BUT 35-40 KT WSW FLOW AT MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH NW MO IMPULSE
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IN ERN MO AND IL.  SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY ANY LEFTOVER CIRCULATIONS/BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN IA/WI/NRN IL.

...CNTRL HI PLNS TO OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION...
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL HI
PLNS LATER TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MTNS
AND CONTINUED ESE MOTION OF WY/UT IMPULSE.  ASSOCIATED INFLUX OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER PLAINS...AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE...SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL
WY...CNTRL CO AND NRN NM.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW...STRONG HEATING AND
30-35 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS
THE STORMS MOVE E/SE INTO THE PLAINS.  LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY.  SUSTAINED MOISTURE INFLUX AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS BY
EVENING.  WHILE THESE SYSTEMS MAY MOVE E INTO WRN KS...THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD SSE TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION.  THESE
CLUSTERS MAY POSE A RISK FOR WIND/HAIL INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

...SW TX TO RED RVR VLY REGION...
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWD INTO NW TX FROM KS/OK MCS...IN
ADDITION TO LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN W TX...MAY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER REGION.  COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/ AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STORM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. 
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP NWD INTO WRN/SRN OK THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ ENHANCES
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE STORM-GENERATED OUTFLOW.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 07/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.