[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040545
SWODY1
SPC AC 040544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
TOL 40 NNW LUK 35 NNE HOP 30 WNW UOX 35 E ELD SHV 50 SSE DAL 30 NW
BWD 35 ENE BGS 25 ENE HOB 35 NNE ROW 45 S LVS 55 WSW COS 10 SSE 4FC
20 SSW CYS 15 NNW SNY 35 NW IML 25 ESE GLD 15 S GCK 40 NNE GAG 25 W
PNC 25 ESE CNU 15 E SZL 30 SE IRK 25 E MLI 15 WNW MKE 25 WSW TVC 10
S ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK BGM IPT 15 SSW
SHD 20 SSE LYH 50 NNE RDU 60 NE RWI 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX
25 S CLL 30 NNE AUS 25 NNE JCT 70 SW SJT 25 SSE P07 ...CONT... 70
WNW MRF 20 SSE GDP 35 NW GDP 10 S ALM ONM 20 ESE 4SL 15 SE CEZ 40
WNW PGA 40 W CDC 60 ESE TPH 20 ESE BIH 45 NW BIH 55 S NFL 20 NNW U31
65 NNE ENV 40 NNW EVW 50 NE RKS 25 ESE LND 45 ESE JAC 30 ENE MQM 30
NNE BZN 65 ENE BIL 55 NNE RAP 15 SSW 9V9 25 S SUX 30 SE MCW 20 W RST
25 NW MKT 20 N HON 35 S DIK 30 N GDV 65 NNW GGW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CO....

...SYNOPSIS...
OVERNIGHT MCC COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE DY1 OUTLOOK.  ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NEB
SWWD INTO NERN NM.  ELSEWHERE...MODELS SHOW POSITIVELY TILTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO...THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY.  MCV ASSOCIATED WITH MCC IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER ERN KS/WRN MO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
MOVE ENEWD INTO NERN INDIANA/SERN MI BY 05/12Z.  AT THE SURFACE...
MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED THE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL UPR
MI SWD/SWWD THRU NERN MO AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY.  THE MCC IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE SEVERAL OLD CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES FROM ERN MO SWWD ACROSS NRN AR INTO CENTRAL/SRN OK INTO
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.

...LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD
INTO SERN MO BY 05/00Z.  AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND
3000 J/KG.  LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK /20-25 KT/
UNDERNEATH 50-60 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET...ENOUGH TO HAVE 40-50 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
LOWER MI SWWD INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MCV
ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT CENTRAL PLAINS MCC IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
NERN MO/W CENTRAL IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID TO ENHANCE
UVVS IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  SOME SUPERCELLS COULD OCCUR
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MCV WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR
NEAR THE REMAINING BOUNDARIES.

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN AR WWD THRU SRN OK/NRN
TX INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE BY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER SWRN MO INTO CENTRAL OK.  SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLES DEVELOP WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING IT SEWD INTO NWRN TX BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  ONCE AGAIN...AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER NWRN TX DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
LIE BY AFTERNOON.  NAM/ETA MODEL GENERATES STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8.5C/KM WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MU CAPE AROUND 3500
J/KG.  THUS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER E
CENTRAL/SERN CO...AND ALONG THE OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY...THIS
AFTERNOON POSSIBLY FORMING INTO A SECOND MCS/MCC ACROSS SRN OK/NRN
TX THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.  WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY GIVING THE IDEA OF LOWER
PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE UNKNOWN NATURE AND LOCATION OF THE OLD
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. LATER UPPER AIR DATA/UPDATED MODELS COULD
GIVE A BETTER INDICATION WHETHER IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE
RISK LATER IN THE DAY.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.