[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040053
SWODY1
SPC AC 040052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
GLD 45 SSW HLC 30 WSW SLN 20 S MHK 15 S TOP 25 SSW CNU 30 WNW TUL 25
NW OKC 20 N CSM 55 WSW GAG 45 SSE EHA 25 SSE LAA 35 N LAA 45 WNW GLD
25 ENE GLD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
CWA JVL 30 WSW UIN 15 SSE UMN 30 NE ADM 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E INK
30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 N CAO 40 NE ALS 40 SSE 4FC 25 E FCL 35 NNW
HLC 20 NNW LNK 20 WNW SPW 40 S STC 45 NNE MSP 45 NW AUW 30 ESE CWA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE APN 40 SSW HTL
40 SSW SBN 25 WSW MTO UNO 45 SSE MLC 25 ENE BWD 15 NE JCT 10 SE DRT
...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 SW INK 50 NE CVS 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 30 SW
CNY 35 N VEL 20 SE DGW 20 N MHN 45 SSW MHE 40 NE BKX 30 WSW AXN 20 S
FAR 45 NW JMS 30 WSW P24 70 NW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSX 40 SSE AUS
AUS 10 E TPL 60 WSW TYR 30 W MLU 20 ENE UOX 35 ESE OWB 30 W LUK 10
ESE CMH 30 N PKB 25 SE MGW 25 NE SHD 15 ENE LYH 15 SSE DAN 15 ESE
RDU 45 SE EWN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SWRN AND S CENTRAL KS
INTO NWRN AND N CENTRAL OK....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES EXTEND SWWD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO THE
NRN PLAINS THEN SWWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER S CENTRAL CANADA.  THIS ALSO HAS RESULTED IN
WLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ERN CO INTO NERN NM.  IT
IS THIS EMBEDDED WAVE THAT HAS RESULTED IN VERY STRONG ASCENT ACROSS
ERN CO INTO KS.  03/23Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS SFC LOW OVER THE OK
PANHANDLE WITH A WARM FRONT THAT REACHES EWD/SEWD ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER INTO CENTRAL AR.  STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NERN KS/NWRN
MO AND ACROSS S CENTRAL KS HAS LEFT A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY FROM NERN KS INTO S CENTRAL KS.  ALSO...CONVECTION OVER
NWRN KS/SWRN NEB INTO SERN CO HAS CREATED ANOTHER BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED FROM GLD SWD AND SWWD THRU SERN CO.  THESE BOUNDARIES WILL
BASICALLY MERGE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENHANCING UVVS FOR
A MCS THAT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS SRN KS AND NRN OK THRU THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN KS AND NRN/CENTRAL OK...

LATEST RAOB DATA SHOWS DEEP MIXED LAYER OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING WITH A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TO 500 MB.  KNOWING THAT
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO/WRN
KS AND IS BEGINNING TO TRACK ALONG BOUNDARY THAT IS ACROSS SWRN
KS...MCS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD.  SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 25-35 KT IS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL KS
AND IS COUPLED WITH WLY 30-35 KT MID LEVEL FLOW POISING FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION.  MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE VERY
HIGH INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-4000 J/KG FROM SERN OK
INTO S CENTRAL AND SWRN KS /LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -12/. CONSIDERING
THE VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY...MAIN
THREATS WILL BE VERY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE
OVERNIGHT MCS. SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN OCCUR IN AREA
OF FAVORABLE 0-3KM HELICITY DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS ACROSS SRN
PARTS OF KS AND EXTREME NRN OK.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.