[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031956
SWODY1
SPC AC 031954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
GLD 40 S HLC 30 E RSL 20 S MHK 15 SSW EMP 25 W BVO 40 NE OKC 35 WSW
OKC 30 NE CDS 50 E AMA 50 SSE EHA 25 SSE LAA 35 N LAA 35 WSW GLD 35
ESE GLD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
CMX JVL 30 WSW UIN 15 SSE UMN 30 NE ADM 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E INK
30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 N CAO 40 NE ALS 40 SSE 4FC 25 E FCL 35 NNW
HLC 15 SSE OFK 30 NNE OTG 35 NNW BRD 30 WNW BJI 70 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 30 SW INK
50 NE CVS 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 45 SSE U24 SLC 20 SE DGW 20 N MHN 45
SSW MHE 40 NE BKX 30 WSW AXN 20 S FAR 45 NW JMS 20 SSE SDY 50 NNW
GGW ...CONT... 40 NE APN 40 SSW HTL 40 SSW SBN 25 WSW MTO UNO 45 SSE
MLC 25 ENE BWD 15 NE JCT 10 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSX 40 SSE AUS
AUS 10 E TPL 60 WSW TYR 30 W MLU 20 ENE UOX 45 SSW SDF DAY 35 NNW
CMH 15 SSW CAK 10 SE PIT 15 E MRB 20 SSE LYH 15 SSE DAN 15 ESE RDU
45 SE EWN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN/ECNTRL
CO...MUCH OF SRN KS...NWRN HALF OF OK...THE CNTRL/ERN OK PNHDL AND
EXTREME NERN TX PNHDL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VLY...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLD SUPERCELL ACROSS CNTRL KS THIS
AFTN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM ERN CO INTO
CNTRL/SRN KS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  SATL SHOWS BANDS OF HIGH
BASED CU OVER CNTRL CO AHEAD OF A POTENT H5 IMPULSE.  THESE SHOULD
ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG/
ACROSS ERN CO BETWEEN 20-22Z AND RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE.  0-6KM SHEAR
OF GREATER THAN 40 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE
8.5-9 DEGREE C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT GIANT HAIL
COULD OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ISOLD TORNADOES.

AS THE H5 WAVE MOVES EWD AND TSTM COLD POOLS CONGLOMERATE/
STRENGTHEN...A SEVERE MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...PROBABLY VCNTY THE
NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER WCNTRL/SWRN KS.  THE
MCS SHOULD DEVELOP/MOVE ESEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN KS...NWRN OK AND
PERHAPS THE NERN TX PNHDL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY REACH ERN KS AND
CNTRL OK BY 12Z WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL.  SOME WIND GUSTS MAY
EXCEED 65 KTS WITHIN THE MDT RISK AREA ACROSS SRN KS...NCNTRL/NWRN
OK AND THE NERN TX PNHDL.

FARTHER TO THE S...ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING
DRYLINE FROM NWRN TO SWRN TX LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING.  STRONGEST
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST ACROSS SWRN TX...BUT GIVEN STRONG
INSTABILITY...ANY TSTMS THAT FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE COULD BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

...CORN BELT AND UPPER MS VLY...
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT AS CLEAR AS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.  AIR
MASS HAS RECOVERED FROM MORNING MCS WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING ALONG/AHEAD THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN IA INTO ERN MN. 
CIRRUS OUTFLOW DEBRIS FROM KS TSTMS SEEMS TO BE THINNING ACROSS THE
REGION AND CONTINUED HEATING COUPLED WITH FRONTAL CIRCULATION MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO INITIATION LATER THIS AFTN...PARTICULARLY FROM CNTRL
IA NWD INTO ERN MN.  FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO THE OVERALL MASS
CONVERGENCE MAY OCCUR AS UPSTREAM LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD
EWD FROM THE DAKS.  PRESENCE OF 50 KTS OF WLY H5 FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS ACROSS IA THIS
EVENING/NIGHT AND CONTINUE PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL.

...SERN STATES...
TSTMS SEEM TO BE CONCENTRATING IN TWO BROAD AREAS THIS AFTN.  ONE
WAS ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS SC AND NRN GA AND ALONG/W OF
THE APPALACHIAN CREST FROM THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO SRN WV.  THE
MAJORITY OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED MULTICELLULAR...THOUGH THERE
HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF STORMS THAT EXHIBITED BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR
STRUCTURES...MAINLY FROM UPSTATE SC NWD TO SRN WV AMIDST 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 30-35 KTS.  ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY FOCUSED ON ANY GIVEN
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH NUMEROUS STORM SCALE
INTERACTIONS.  BRIEF PULSE-TYPE OF SEVERE IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLD
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.  THESE THREATS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
WITH DIURNAL COOLING.

..RACY.. 07/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.