[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031632
SWODY1
SPC AC 031630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
CSM 50 E AMA 50 SSE EHA 25 SSE LAA 35 N LAA 35 SW GLD 45 ESE GLD RSL
HUT 40 N END 45 NNE CSM 30 W CSM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
CMX 30 NW RFD 35 NNW COU 25 S JLN 25 SE OKC 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E
INK 30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 N CAO 40 NE ALS 40 SSE 4FC 25 E FCL 15
NNW MCK 30 ENE OLU 15 NNW FRM 30 NE BRD 30 WNW BJI 70 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 30 SW INK
50 NE CVS 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 60 W 4HV 40 ESE SLC 20 SE DGW 30 SW
VTN 10 E MHE 20 NW RWF 30 NW STC 45 NW BRD 45 NW JMS 20 SSE SDY 50
NNW GGW ...CONT... 30 E PLN 40 SSW HTL 50 SSE CGX 30 ENE ALN 20 NW
UNO 30 SSW MLC 35 NNE BWD 30 NNW JCT 10 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSX 40 SSE AUS
AUS 10 E TPL 60 WSW TYR 30 W MLU 20 ENE UOX 45 SSW SDF DAY 35 NNW
CMH 15 SSW CAK 10 SE PIT 15 E MRB 20 SSE LYH 15 SSE DAN 15 ESE RDU
45 SE EWN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN KS INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TX INTO THE NRN MS
RIVER VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED POORLY BY OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO THIS POINT...REMAINS EXTENSIVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL COMPLICATE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO MN AND THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY...WITH TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING SSEWD INTO
SRN NEB AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  SHEAR WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS LARGE AREA OF 50-60 KT
WLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  IN ADDITION...WEAKER
DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND 35-40 KT MID LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST
AND UNMODIFIED...AND HAVE SHIFTED GREATEST SEVERE RISK/PROBABILITIES
INTO THIS REGION.  
 

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO TX-OK PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK/WRN KS...
AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST THIS MORNING WITH MIXING RATIOS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS FROM NWRN OK INTO FAR ERN CO/WRN KS /SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S INTO NWRN OK AND LOWER 60S ACROSS WRN KS/. 
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION...SOUTH
OF ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER NWRN KS.  THOUGH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...SURFACE
BASED POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE IF STORMS HOLD-ON INTO THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.  A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN OVER SERN CO/FAR SWRN
KS...WHILE DRY LINE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED SSWWD FROM THE CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD
OVERCOME WEAKENING CAP NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND NEAR SURFACE
LOW/DRY LINE AND SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
SPREAD EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE/ADJACENT PLAINS LATER TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF MODEST WLY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 45+ KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM THE
NERN TX PANHANDLE NWD. THUS...SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL INITIALLY.  HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUD BASES
AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT TRANSITION INTO
BOW ECHOES.  ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A SEVERE MCS AND
SPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT WINDS...ESEWD
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK. 

FARTHER S ALONG DRY LINE OVER WRN TX...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED. THOUGH...SHEAR WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
AFTER DARK GIVEN LACK OF FOCUS WITH RETREATING DRY LINE.

...NERN KS/ERN NEB/IA/MN ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION...AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DESTABILIZATION
EFFECTS...FEEL MDT RISK NO LONGER WARRANTED INTO IA/ERN NEB/NERN KS.
 HOWEVER WITH COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST AND DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...WILL KEEP BROAD SLGT RISK AREA ACROSS THE REGION.  ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN IA AND
INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN WI THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. 
THOUGH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS REGION SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  PERSISTENT MOIST
CONVECTION AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS ERN NEB/NERN
KS AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS COMPLICATES HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT.  ATTM...EXPECT AT LEAST POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MN AND PORTIONS OF IA/ERN
NEB.  GIVEN AMOUNT OF SHEAR...CLUSTERS/AREAS OF GREATER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
AT 1530Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH
VALLEY WHICH EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS NWRN MS AND TO THE GULF COAST IN
VICINITY OF DECAYING MCS OFF THE SRN LA COAST. THE 12Z 500MB
ANALYSIS INDICATED MODEST COLD POOL ACROSS MS/AL WITH TEMPERATURES
OF -8 TO -9C. THIS THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT ENEWD WITH BAND OF
15-25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNWIND OF REMNANT MCS CIRCULATION AND
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH AXIS. WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS /LOW TO MID 70S/ ACROSS CENTRAL AL ENEWD
INTO NWRN GA...VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN
THIS ZONE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MORNING BHM SOUNDING
INDICATED MODEST DRY LAYERS ABOVE 700MB WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MUCAPE
VALUES UP TO 3500 J/KG ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS...PROVIDING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR STRONG
STORM-SCALE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. WSWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-25KT MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD STEM FROM WET MICROBURSTS WITH STRONGER CORES AND
RESULTING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY AID CELL LONGEVITY
AND WBZ HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.