[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031301
SWODY1
SPC AC 031259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
OTM 30 E STJ 20 WSW CNU END 35 ENE LBL 30 NNE GCK 25 NW LNK 30 SSW
SPW 15 ENE MCW 25 N OTM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
ANJ 30 NNE PIA 35 NNW COU 25 S JLN 25 SE OKC 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15
E INK 30 WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 N CAO 40 NE ALS 40 SSE 4FC 25 E FCL 15
NNW MCK 10 NE GRI 20 SW OTG 25 WNW STC 50 SW BJI 40 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 35 WSW FST
50 NE CVS 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 60 W 4HV 40 ESE SLC 20 SE DGW 30 SW
VTN 25 W FSD 25 WNW AXN 35 S DVL SDY 85 NW GGW ...CONT... 35 ENE PLN
40 SSW HTL 50 SSE CGX 30 ENE ALN 20 NW UNO 10 ENE DUA 35 NNE BWD 30
NNW JCT DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 60 S CLL 50
W LFK 20 SSW GGG 40 N TUP 40 S MIE 40 ESE DTW ...CONT... 15 NE ERI
30 E FKL 20 S AOO 35 NE CHO 30 WNW RIC 30 SSE RIC 15 ENE ECG.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB...IA...KS AND
NRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS
NEWD TO THE UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE LOW AMPLITUDE WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE N CNTRL
STATES THIS PERIOD AS ELONGATED RIDGES PERSIST OVER THE SWRN STATES
AND FL.  FAIRLY POTENT NRN STREAM SYSTEM NOW OVER SE SK/ND WILL
CONTINUE ENE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
NOW OVER THE NRN PLNS PROGRESSES E/SE TO THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY
AND THE SRN PLNS.  FARTHER S...STLT LOOPS SHOW A POSITIVE TILT
IMPULSE ATTM OVER SRN WY/ERN UT.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E TO
THE CNTRL PLNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS TO UPR MS VLY...
A BROAD AREA OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS IN PLACE AHEAD
OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM CNTRL NEB
SWD AND EWD INTO KS/OK AND IA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING OF
LLJ IN THE PAST 12-18 HRS...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSING
UPR SYSTEM IN ND...HAS ALLOWED FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

SCATTERED AREAS OF WARM ADVECTION STORMS THAT HAVE PERSISTED FROM
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING.  WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LOCALLY DIMINISH SOME OF THE
STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...BY
AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO MORE THAN 3500
J/KG OVER PARTS OF KS/NEB AND WRN IA.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVER ERN CO AS DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW ADVECTS POST
FRONTAL MOISTURE INTO REGION.

TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO BY MIDDAY
AND SPREAD E INTO THE PLAINS AS SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED EWD
MOTION OF WY/UT IMPULSE DESTABILIZE REGION.  OTHER STORMS MAY EVOLVE
FROM MORNING WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MOS
VLY.  COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND UPLIFT WILL
CREATE POTENT SETUP SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND...DURING EARLY STAGES OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT...A COUPLE TORNADOES.  THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE
OR TWO LARGE CLUSTERS WHICH...GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT...MAY CONTAIN ONE OR MORE SUSTAINED
BOWS WITH HIGH WIND.  THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
E/SE...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.

FARTHER N...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS THE UPR MS
VLY.  WHILE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SK/ND DISTURBANCE WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED GIVEN
ONGOING WEAKENING MCS AND ABSENCE OF RICH MOISTURE INFLOW. 
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...HOWEVER...TO SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH WIND AND
HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

...LWR MS VLY/SERN STATES...
STLT LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER E TX/LA...INVOF
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX WHICH MOVED INTO REGION LATE
YESTERDAY.  DIFFUSE EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PERSIST FROM
LA INTO SC AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD.  AIRMASS
WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE...WITH AFTERNOON
MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT /15-20 KTS AT
500 MB/ LIMIT DEEP SHEAR SHEAR.  BUT SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 07/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.