[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030605
SWODY1
SPC AC 030603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
CWA 20 W DBQ 15 N MKC 20 SE MHK 40 NNE RSL 40 ESE SUX 20 W MSP 45 N
EAU 30 SW CWA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
MQT 15 W MKE 35 NNW STL 10 ENE OKC 25 W SJT 45 ENE FST 15 E INK 30
WNW PVW 30 NE DHT 50 WNW EHA 15 E GRI 30 SW OTG 50 E FAR 40 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BUF 30 E BFD
20 NW CXY 35 NE CHO 30 WNW RIC 30 SSE RIC 15 ENE ECG ...CONT... 35
ENE PLN 40 SSW HTL 50 SSE CGX 30 ENE ALN 20 NW UNO 20 S ADM 35 NNE
BWD 30 NNW JCT DRT ...CONT... 75 SW P07 30 WNW FST 25 SSW HOB 35 ESE
TCC 45 NNW TCC 40 SW CEZ 20 WSW 4HV 45 SSE EVW 20 SE DGW 20 SSE CDR
VTN 35 ENE PIR 10 NE MBG 25 WNW GDV 85 NW GGW ...CONT... 25 SSE CRP
50 E SAT 25 NNW CLL 20 SSW GGG 10 N MKL 40 S MIE 40 ESE DTW.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN MN...WRN
WI...IA...SERN NEB...NERN KS...AND NWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD AS
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS SRN MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY...REACHING NRN MN
AND NWRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
DAY.  FARTHER SOUTH...MCV NEAR THE ARKLATEX MAY PERSIST AND MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD REACHING A
MN/ERN NEB/SWRN KS LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR/ERN IA/NW MO/OK PANHANDLE BY 04/12Z. A NORTH/SOUTH DRYLINE
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO WRN TX.  OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
EWD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...
ONGOING MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO CNTRL/ERN MN AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT
MOVES EWD INTO LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...BUT COLD POOL MAY
GENERATE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA THAT COULD PROVIDE
AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH OF THIS REGION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.  MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WILL SPREAD
EWD NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN
THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000
J/KG FROM SRN MN SSWWD ACROSS IA/WRN MO/KS AND PARTS OF WRN TX.
STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE CAP ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MN...CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS AS STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES LARGE
SCALE ASCENT NEAR THE COLD FRONT.  STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS MN WILL ENHANCE STORM
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY ACROSS MN/WI AND IA REGION WITH SEVERE
STORMS LIKELY...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  FARTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF
KS AND NRN MO THE SHEAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY WEAKER /30-35 KT IN
THE LOWEST 6 KM/ BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE
VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.  THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FORM INTO ONE OR
MORE SEVERE MCS'S DURING THE EVENING MOVING EWD AND SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE THROUGH 06-08Z.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
NAM AND NAMKF INDICATE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. 
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MODEST /25-30 KT/...STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
25-30 KT SUGGEST A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP.  PRESENCE OF LARGE
DCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL WELL MIXED LAYER
INDICATE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. 
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES...
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY.  WEAK
EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE FROM LA INTO SC AND MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING DAY.  AIRMASS
WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK WITH 10-20 KT WINDS AT 500 MB RESULTING IN LIMITED
VERTICAL SHEAR.  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR
A CATEGORICAL RISK.

..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 07/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.