[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030057
SWODY1
SPC AC 030055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
IWD 25 NNW EAU 30 NNE MCW YKN VTN 35 ENE CDR 60 SW RAP 35 SSE 4BQ 45
NNE 4BQ 15 ESE SDY 65 NNE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 30 N VCT 20
ESE SAT 40 SSE DRT ...CONT... 70 WNW MRF 40 SE ROW 20 E CVS 15 SW
CAO TAD 55 ESE GUC 25 NNE GJT 25 SSW PUC 55 ESE ELY 50 SW ELY 40 SW
ENV 25 WSW OGD 10 NE RKS 30 NE RWL 20 NNE CPR WRL 25 S WEY 35 WSW
MSO 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 25 SE CMX 30 S LSE LNK 20 SE P28 15 E CSM
SPS 20 WNW FTW 45 WSW TYR 15 SW LFK 35 E LCH 20 NW HEZ 30 ESE JAN 30
WNW BHM 10 N TYS 30 NE TRI 10 E DAN 35 E ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
EWD TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED
BAND OF 50-60 KT WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MT AND THE WRN
DAKOTAS WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TWD WRN MN BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN ND INTO NWRN WY
WILL MOVE EWD REACHING AN ERN ND/CENTRAL SD/SERN WY LINE BY 03/12Z.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
DAKOTAS.  00Z SOUNDINGS AT RAP/ABR/BIS EXHIBIT STEEP LAPSE RATES AOA
8C/KM RESULTING IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM
1000 J/KG OVER WRN DAKOTAS TO 2500 J/KG OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS.

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
REGION.  STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NRN BORDERS OF ND
AND NWRN MN...WITH OTHER STRONG CELLS OVER CENTRAL SD...SWRN
ND...AND EXTREME SERN MT/NERN WY/NWRN SD.  OVERALL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT INITIALLY OVER
THE DAKOTAS AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL MOIST
AXIS...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AS LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN.  SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS MOVING AND MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY
REACHING EXTREME WRN LAKE SUPR AND NWRN WI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
 LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
LEADING LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS
EXTREME SERN LA AND SRN MS.  CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS...AND
00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE LA/MS REGION SUGGEST THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
BECOMING TOO WEAK TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED MCS INTO THE NIGHT.  THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE 1-2
HOURS WITH A RESULTANT DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. 

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER WRN KS HAVE BEEN MOVING SEWD
WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS.  MID LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20-30 KT ABOVE A VEERING WIND PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM THREAT
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  STORM INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 03Z AS
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES.

..WEISS.. 07/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.